GOP Passes Budget Plan, Now Faces Tough Hurdles

WASHINGTON — After a tight vote, Republicans have approved their budget outline, but the real challenge is just beginning.

The approved resolution is just an initial step, allowing Republicans to create legislation they can pass without Democratic votes. Now, they must develop a final bill with enough spending cuts to please conservatives, while protecting vulnerable lawmakers whose constituents depend on vital social safety net programs.

Holding slim majorities in both the House and Senate, Republicans have little room for error as they draft the legislation, giving individual lawmakers significant influence.

“It’s going to take all of us to get it done,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.

The path ahead is difficult.

Republicans are committed to extending the individual tax cuts from Donald Trump’s first term before they expire this year. However, they plan for the bill to do much more, potentially including new tax reductions Trump promised during his campaign, like eliminating income tax on tips and overtime.

Tax cuts are only one part of the equation. House conservatives supported the budget plan after receiving assurances that the final bill would include at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts. These cuts would require changes to federal programs like Medicaid, which some in the party may find difficult to support.

“The struggles Republicans have faced so far are only a glimmer of what’s to come,” said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.

Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, anticipates a tough battle for Republicans. He noted Trump’s opposition to benefit cuts for Medicaid recipients, which could conflict with the desire for deep spending cuts among some conservatives.

“If it’s this rocky now, it’s only going to get worse from here on out if the speaker is not able to get the entire conference in line,” Miller said.

Democrats are portraying the Republican plan as an effort to cut essential government programs to fund tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy. They intend to emphasize this message leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.

“At this point, they’re all worried about primaries and they are worried about Elon’s money, but they ought to be worried about a general election as well,” said Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., referring to Trump’s billionaire ally and adviser, Elon Musk. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for a moderate Republican, if there’s still any left, to be able to vote for this and go home and defend it.”

Prior to Thursday’s budget vote, some Republicans also told GOP leaders they would be closely watching for changes to Medicaid in the final bill.

“This was just making sure that there is a clear understanding here that there are a group of members that will not cut benefits from seniors and our most vulnerable New Yorkers who rely on Medicaid,” said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who faces reelection next year, stated she has also communicated her position to leadership.

“I could not make my position on Medicaid cuts clearer,” she said. “I am not going to support cuts that affect low-income families, disabled individuals, low-income seniors, rural hospitals.”

Republicans say they are focusing on implementing work requirements for eligible beneficiaries and stricter eligibility checks. However, Democrats argue that Republicans cannot achieve the projected savings without also reducing benefits.

Meanwhile, Republicans view extending the individual and estate tax cuts from Trump’s first term as crucial for their electoral success next year. The House Ways and Means Committee states that a family of four earning $80,610 annually, the median U.S. income, would face a $1,695 tax increase if the tax cuts are not extended.

Having spent recent years blaming President Joe Biden’s administration for rising debt, a key test for Republicans will be whether they maintain that focus while trying to extend and expand tax cuts.

A recent estimate from the Joint Committee on Taxation projects that extending the 2017 tax cuts would add $5.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, including interest, and $4.6 trillion excluding interest. Including Trump’s campaign promises would increase that cost to $7 trillion.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said he will advocate for splitting the measure into two reconciliation bills if Republicans are slow to finalize the plan.

“I’m going to say break it apart, because they need money for the border yesterday and they also need money for DoD,” Graham said, referring to the Department of Defense.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he welcomed the challenge and acknowledged the extensive work ahead.

“The American people are counting on us,” Johnson said.

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., expressed confidence that a final bill will pass, with the House prevailing on the most critical issues related to taxes and spending cuts.

“I will bet you they will fold rather than inflict the largest tax increase in American history on their voters,” Cole said of the Senate. “And two-thirds of them, with all due respect, aren’t on the ballot next time. … Whereas everyone here is on the line. And our majority is much more on the line that their majority is.”

—Associated Press staff writers Mary Clare Jalonick, Lisa Mascaro and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.