Canada Heads to the Polls Under the Shadow of Trump: Key Election Details
Canadians are heading to the polls for an early election called by , a vote considered by some to be one of the most important in the nation’s history.
The election’s dynamics have been significantly impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has Canada, a close ally, and suggested annexing it as the “51st state.”
These actions have angered Canadians and boosted the Liberal Party’s prospects. The Conservative Party, led by , had a 25-point lead over the Liberals before and Carney took over as leader.
As of election day, Carney’s Liberals , while the Conservatives garnered 39%. The Liberals are expected to secure the most seats in Parliament.
Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know about the 2025 Canadian election.
How does the Canadian election work?
Carney called the election on March 23, a week after becoming Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader following Trudeau’s resignation.
The first polls opened in Newfoundland, Canada’s easternmost province, at 7 a.m. E.T. Polls in other provinces will open according to their respective time zones, with the last polls closing in British Columbia at 10 p.m. E.T.
Canadians will vote for a candidate from a political party in their federal electoral district, or “riding.” The candidate with the most votes in each riding becomes a Member of Parliament (MP) in the House of Commons, and the party with the most MPs wins the election.
Currently, the Liberal Party holds a minority government with , followed by the Conservatives with 120 seats, the Bloc Québécois with 33, the New Democratic Party with 25, the Greens with two, and four Independent MPs.
What are Canadians saying about Trump?
Trump’s interactions with Canada have sparked anger, with displays of disapproval at sporting events and boycotts of American products.
Carney, who assumed the Prime Ministership without prior experience as an elected official, has adopted a strong stance against Trump. In his initial address, he declared: “We will never be integrated into the U.S. in any way, shape, or form.”
He recently disclosed that Trump the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state during their most recent discussion on March 28, stating, “The president constantly brings this up.”
Carney has been outspoken regarding his strategy concerning U.S. tariffs. Following President Trump’s announcement of global tariffs on April 2, or “Liberation Day,” the former central banker pledged retaliatory tariffs.
Poilievre has criticized Carney’s approach to Trump and tariffs, claiming that he was unsuccessful in obtaining concessions that other nations had secured.
However, suggested that more Canadians believe Carney is better equipped to manage relations with Trump and address tariffs. The Liberals have also attempted to portray Poilievre as a “Maple MAGA” and “” figure amid rising Canadian nationalism.
When can we expect a result for the Canadian election?
Ballot counting commences once polls close in each province and territory. Mail-in ballots may be processed before polls close if there are a significant number of them. This year, a record 7 million votes were cast in advance of election day.
Initial indications of the results are expected after 9:30 p.m. E.T., when polls close in Quebec and Ontario. These provinces, home to the majority of Canadians, are likely to provide valuable insights into voting patterns across different demographics and ridings nationwide.
The CBC typically announces a winner on Election Night based on data from Elections Canada. However, a close contest could prolong the process of determining whether Canadians have elected a minority or majority government.
What are polls saying?
At the beginning of the year, the Conservatives appeared poised to win an election for the first time since 2011. Support for the Conservatives had steadily increased since June 2023, amidst a global trend against incumbent governments and discontent over the rising cost of living.
Despite hitting a low of 20% at the start of January, according to CBC polling, the Liberals are now positioned to win the election. This resurgence has largely come at the expense of the New Democratic Party (NDP), which has seen its support decline by approximately 11 points during the same period.
The CBC projects the Liberal Party to win between 161-204 seats. The Conservatives are projected to win between 111-146 seats, the Bloc Québécois between 19-26, and the NDP between 3-15. The Economist’s gives the Liberals a 72 in 100 chance of winning an outright majority in parliament, which is equivalent to more than 170 seats.