Trump Alters Tone on Prediction Markets, States U.S. Might Trail Behind

(AsiaGameHub) –   President Donald Trump has adjusted his stance on prediction markets, though he has not dropped his existing concerns about the sector. His most recent comments come after a federal case connected to Polymarket drew renewed attention to event contracts, insider information, and the question of how much latitude U.S. regulators should grant the industry.

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Good to Know

• Trump noted that some “very smart” people support prediction markets.
• He previously stated that “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.”
• Polymarket and Kalshi remain at the center of a broader debate over event contracts, sports markets, and state gambling regulations.

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Trump Balances Doubt With Fear Of Falling Behind

Trump sounded more open to prediction markets during remarks to reporters in Florida on Saturday. He did not offer full endorsement of the practice, but he pointed to many industry insiders who back the concept. He said:

“I don’t know. I know some people who are very smart. They like it.

“They disagree, but they like it.”

Trump also brought up international competition, and said:

“A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it.”

Just a few days earlier, Trump used far sharper language during a White House appearance. Reporters asked him about a U.S. soldier accused of using classified information to profit from Polymarket trades linked to a potential operation involving Nicolás Maduro. The Justice Department charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke in this case, and Polymarket flagged the suspicious activity before reporting it to authorities.

“Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” Trump said, and added:

“I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is.”

These comments align with widespread concerns about prediction markets. Kalshi recently fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races, even though each wager was worth less than $100. The platform banned the candidates for five years, while some lawmakers argued the penalties were too lenient.

At the same time, Trump’s inner circle has ties to the prediction market sector. PBS reported that prediction markets tied to Trump’s comments on Iran drew major betting activity, including on platforms backed by Donald Trump Jr. ABC News also reported that the Trump family has connections to prediction market companies such as Polymarket.

Regulators are still fighting over who has jurisdiction over these products. The CFTC has sued New York officials after the state took action against prediction market operators, arguing that federally registered exchanges fall under federal oversight. New York holds the position that some products count as illegal gambling under state law.