Winter Weather in a Changing Climate “`

Recent widespread snow across the U.S. prompts questions about the future of our winters in a warming climate.

Climate change’s effects may be more evident in summer—2024 saw record-breaking U.S. heat. However, rising temperatures are also altering winter weather patterns. Public awareness is growing; a recent Yale Program on Climate Change Communication survey found 66% of Americans believe global warming is impacting U.S. weather.

“Winter’s persistence doesn’t negate climate change,” explains Stuart Evans, University of Buffalo geography professor. “Climate change is a long-term trend leading to warmer winters, but not eliminating them.” 

Here’s how climate change affects winters: 

How will climate change affect snowstorms? 

Evans notes that most of the U.S. can anticipate increased winter precipitation—rain or snow—due to climate change. 

“A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture,” he explains, leading to increased precipitation. Slightly warmer, yet sub-freezing, temperatures can also produce more snow than extremely cold conditions; some areas might see increased snowfall with rising temperatures. 

Regional variations exist. Chris Forest, Penn State climate dynamics professor, points to shifting storm systems. “We’re seeing more storm development in the Northwest, not the West,” he notes, resulting in rain previously falling in the West now snowing in the Great Plains. 

In some regions, like Michigan and New York, “lake effect snow” could become more frequent. Warmer temperatures prevent lake freeze-over, leading to increased evaporation and subsequent snowfall.

Which parts of the country will be most affected? 

Most of the country will be impacted—and already is. Climate Central’s 2024 report shows 283 million Americans (85% of the population) experienced at least one day of warmer-than-average winter temperatures. Regional impacts vary; the West Coast experiences warmer, drier winters than two decades ago, while the Midwest sees fewer sub-freezing days, according to Forest.

“Twenty or thirty years ago, we wouldn’t have seen such stark contrasts between a warm West and a cold East,” Forest observes. 

A fall 2024 study in [Journal Name Redacted] indicated that overall winter precipitation and extreme weather events will increase nationwide. The Northeast and Midwest are expected to see the most significant changes, while the southern Great Plains may experience more frequent extreme dry spells.

Will winters shorten with climate change?

Yes. “Winters will shorten everywhere due to fewer sub-freezing days or frost days,” says Evans, noting that while some areas warm faster, U.S. regional differences will be relatively small.

Some may welcome this change. “If you dislike cold weather, winter will improve,” Evans says. However, those reliant on snow or cold temperatures—for agriculture or recreation—will likely face negative consequences.

What are the consequences of warmer winters?

Warmer, shorter winters will have significant impacts. 

Shorter winters could severely affect Midwest agriculture. “Snow is crucial for Great Plains winter water supply,” Forest explains. “Midwestern agriculture depends on this water for crop growth.”

Milder winters increase crop vulnerability to pests and diseases thriving in warmer conditions. California’s Central Valley stone fruit, walnut, and almond crops are particularly at risk. 

Plants and animals adapted to intense cold may struggle to adapt. Polar bears could lose habitat as snow melts earlier, while insects and animals might lay eggs earlier due to warmer temperatures.

Infrastructure may be unprepared for heavy snowstorms in areas unaccustomed to them—as seen earlier this year when a Florida snowstorm overwhelmed unprepared cities lacking snow removal equipment.

“We need to be prepared,” Forest concludes.