Why Kamala Harris’ Recent Rise in Favorability Is Significant

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The past three months in the presidential race have been a whirlwind of history-making moments: Joe Biden’s embarrassing gaffes, Donald Trump surviving two assassination attempts, and Kamala Harris’ strong performance in her debate against Trump. It feels different, but the polls show an incredibly tight race, suggesting even a change in candidates might not dramatically alter the outcome in a nation so deeply divided.

However, a recent NBC News poll, conducted between September 13th and 17th, reveals a significant shift in the race’s dynamics, if not its fundamental nature. Since July, Harris’ favorability among voters has increased by 16 points, the largest jump NBC’s polling unit has observed in any politician’s favorability since President George W. Bush’s spike after the September 11th, 2001, terrorist attacks. Before Biden’s withdrawal, Harris’ polling was underwater, with 50% of the country viewing her unfavorably and only 32% favorably. Now, the same poll finds 48% view her positively and 45% negatively, marking a dramatic turnaround in a short period.

This shift is particularly noteworthy given Harris’ historical polling. NBC News began tracking Harris’ favorability as a national figure in August 2020, when Biden chose her as his running mate. In all that time, she has never seen numbers like this. Her highest favorability rating on record dates back to October 2020, when she had a 42% positive and 38% unfavorable rating. As Vice President, her best numbers came in her first month in office, with an even 41% split in January 2021.

Favorability may not directly translate to voter turnout, but it can significantly impact the outcome of a close race. For context, at this point in 2016, NBC News found then-nominee Hillary Clinton with only 37% positive sentiment, while Trump had an even worse 28%. In September 2020, Trump had a 41% positive view, while Biden edged him out with 43% favorables in the NBC News polling. 

Various factors might be contributing to Harris’ surge. Democrats had expressed concerns about Biden’s chances of winning and serving another term. Biden’s disastrous debate performance, where he appeared halting and uneven on stage with Trump, fueled those concerns. However, Harris’ entry into the race, with her strong presence and a reintroduction that erased any comparisons to Selina Meyer from “Veep” (as TIME’s Charlotte Alter explained in a magazine cover story), changed the narrative. Suddenly, Trump appears as the older candidate lagging behind, as he continues to promote conspiracy theories that are turning off even some die-hard Republicans.

The NBC News data supports this shift. In July, when pollsters included a hypothetical scenario of Harris as the nominee, things looked bleak for Democrats. Trump still held an advantage over Harris, 47% to 45%. However, with the scenario now a reality, Harris has claimed the advantage over Trump, 49% to 44%. Since Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats have gained a seven-point swing in their favor (although other polls suggest a smaller margin).

One of the most significant factors in Harris’ surge is the perception of her ability to handle the presidency. When Biden was still in the race, only 21% of voters believed he was more physically and mentally fit for the role than Trump. Now, 54% of voters believe Harris can get it done. Perhaps the “medical experts” were unfair in their assessment of Biden’s capabilities, but once that image was established, it proved difficult to shake.

Harris’ campaign has reminded supporters that they’re running as underdogs, particularly as Trump appears stronger in battleground states than nationally. Both campaign leadership and Harris herself emphasize that this is a close race, and they need to gain at least two or three points nationally to have a chance of winning in the Electoral College, where Republicans have a structural advantage.

As the campaign enters its final six weeks before Election Day, with some states already seeing early voting, it’s worth acknowledging the significant shifts in the race, both large and small. While it remains one of the closest presidential races in recent history, it is no longer the same tight race it was three months ago. The ground has shifted dramatically. However, once the ground becomes unstable, it becomes easier to move.

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