UNAIDS Warns of Sixfold HIV Infection Surge if U.S. Funding Cuts Continue “`
LONDON — The head of the U.N. AIDS agency warned Monday that a halt to funding from the largest AIDS program could lead to a more than sixfold increase in new HIV infections by 2029. This, she cautioned, could result in millions of deaths and the emergence of drug-resistant strains.
In an interview with The Associated Press, UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima stated that new HIV infections have been declining in recent years, reaching 1.3 million in 2023 – a 60% decrease since the peak in 1995.
However, Byanyima explained that a proposed 90-day freeze on U.S. foreign aid could cause a drastic surge. Officials estimate that by 2029, this could lead to 8.7 million new HIV infections, a tenfold increase in AIDS-related deaths (to 6.3 million), and an additional 3.4 million orphaned children.
“We will see a resurgence of the disease,” Byanyima stated from Uganda. She emphasized the devastating impact, saying, “This will cost lives if the American government doesn’t reconsider and maintain its leadership.” She added that criticizing government policy was not her role.
Byanyima urged the Trump administration to avoid abruptly cutting funding, describing the current situation as causing “panic, fear and confusion” in many of the areas hardest hit by AIDS.
She cited a Kenyan county where 550 HIV workers were immediately laid off and thousands more in Ethiopia lost their jobs, crippling the ability of health officials to monitor the epidemic.
She highlighted the catastrophic impact of lost U.S. funding, noting that external funding – mostly from the U.S. – accounts for roughly 90% of HIV programs in certain countries. This amounts to nearly $400 million for nations such as Uganda, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
“We are willing to work with (the Americans) on ways to reduce their contribution, should they wish to,” she said, characterizing the American withdrawal as the second biggest crisis the field has faced, after the years-long delay in providing poor countries with the life-saving antiretrovirals readily available in wealthier nations.
Byanyima also pointed out that this loss of support coincides with the advent of what she termed “a revolutionary prevention tool” – lenacapavir, a twice-yearly injection proven to provide complete HIV protection in women and nearly as effective in men.
Widespread use of this injection, alongside other interventions, could potentially end HIV as a public health problem within five years, Byanyima suggested.
She mentioned that lenacapavir, sold as Sunlenca, was developed by the American company Gilead.
International aid, Byanyima argued, “helped an American company to innovate, to develop something that will generate millions in profits while simultaneously preventing new infections worldwide.” The freeze on American funding, she stressed, is economically illogical.
“We urge the U.S. government to reconsider, to recognize the mutual benefits,” she said, noting that foreign assistance comprises less than 1% of the U.S. budget. “Why cause such disruption over that 1%?”
Byanyima stated that no other countries or donors have yet stepped forward to replace the lost American aid. However, she intends to visit various European capitals to speak with global leaders.
“People will die because they’ve been deprived of life-saving resources,” she said. “I haven’t yet seen any European country make a commitment to step in, but I know they’re listening and assessing potential contributions because they care about human rights and humanity.”
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