U.S. Tourism Faces Sharp Drop Amid Foreign Concerns Over Trump’s Policies
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A prominent travel forecasting firm announced Tuesday that international tourism to the United States is projected to decline more sharply than previously anticipated due to disapproval of the Trump Administration’s tariffs and statements.
Tourism Economics now projects a 9.4% decrease in international arrivals to the U.S. This is nearly double their prior estimate of a 5% decrease issued at the close of February.
Earlier in the year, Tourism Economics had anticipated a strong year for international travel to the U.S., forecasting a 9% increase in visits compared to 2024.
However, Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks stated that recent events at the U.S. border have discouraged international travelers. Potential visitors are also reportedly displeased with Trump’s position on various matters.
“With each policy development, each rhetorical missive, we’re just seeing unforced error after unforced error in the administration,” Sacks commented. “It has a direct impact on international travel to the U.S.”
The anticipated decline is expected to negatively affect airlines, hotels, national parks, and other tourist destinations.
Tourism Economics predicts a 20% decrease in travel from Canada this year, which will significantly impact border states like New York and Michigan, as well as popular tourist destinations like California, Nevada, and Florida.
The U.S. Travel Association, a trade organization, has also expressed concerns about decreased travel from Canada. They noted in February that even a 10% reduction could result in 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses.
Other travel-related businesses have observed concerning trends. Air Canada reported at its annual shareholder meeting on Monday that bookings to the U.S. for the April-September period were down 10% compared to the same period last year.
Sacks now anticipates that foreign visitors will spend $9 billion less in the U.S. compared to 2024, a year in which international tourism to the country increased by 9.1%.
“The irony is that the tariffs are being put in place to help right the trade deficit, but they’re harming the trade balance by causing fewer international travelers to come and spend money here,” Sacks explained.
Sacks mentioned that international arrivals were approaching a return to pre-pandemic (2019) levels. He now believes that this recovery will not occur until 2029.