U.S. national debt set to reach 175% of GDP, and why no president—even Trump—can halt it

(SeaPRwire) –   President Trump presented his Fiscal 2027 Budget proposal on April 3, 2026, a submission that was delayed by two months. A notable feature of the plan is a proposed defense spending hike of more than 40%, paired with an approximate 10% reduction in non-defense discretionary spending. However, despite deep cuts to areas ranging from environmental protection and scientific research to housing and small-business aid, overall government expenditure is set to rise, the deficit is expected to expand significantly, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to reach peacetime records, staying above 100%.

In essence, the Trump administration’s budget continues a pattern of fiscal irresponsibility that has been particularly pronounced over the last three presidential terms. Tax policy is in disarray, and there is a complete lack of spending restraint. The data indicates that an improvement is not forthcoming.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides projections for the nation’s current fiscal position and its likely future path, presenting government figures as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Before examining the CBO’s data, it is important to note that the intent is not to debate the accuracy of its metrics and predictions. In fact, the CBO’s macroeconomic forecasts have generally proven more reliable than the Administration’s budget outlooks and the private Blue-Chip consensus, and are at least as precise as the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

These metrics reveal the nature of the federal government’s fiscal missteps:

• The pace of economic growth is anticipated to decelerate, dropping substantially below its average from 1976 to 2025.
• The federal government is projected to keep expanding at a faster rate than the private sector.
• Current federal income levels are similar to those of the last half-century and are forecast to see only modest growth.
• Federal budget shortfalls are considerably larger than they have been over the past 50 years and are expected to grow markedly in the coming years.
• Mandatory spending has risen sharply, from 6% of GDP in 1946 to 13.7% currently, and is projected to rise significantly going forward.
• Discretionary spending has fallen markedly, from 18.2% of GDP in 1946 to 6.2% today, and is predicted to keep decreasing. It is important to note that all the specific federal government duties outlined by the nation’s founders are classified as discretionary spending.
• Defense spending has decreased from a 1976–2025 average of 4.1% of GDP to 2.9% today and is anticipated to continue its long-term decline. This trend will likely be adjusted in the short term to account for Trump’s call for a substantial boost in defense funding.
• Social Security expenditures have risen above their 50-year average and are expected to continue increasing.
• Spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal healthcare programs has grown dramatically compared to its average over the past five decades and is projected to rise significantly in the future.
• Net interest payments have increased substantially over the last 50 years and are forecast to surge dramatically ahead. Notably, interest is the fastest-growing expense for the federal government and provides no direct return for taxpayers.

Although all these trends associated with the fiscal mismanagement are instructive, one fundamental element is most glaring: the vast chasm between government outlays and income, leading to large budget deficits. Deficit financing, a tactic akin to a magic trick, generates a “fiscal illusion” that hides the real price and repercussions of the government’s spending habits. These deficits persist because they fulfill a politician’s ideal of authorizing spending immediately while postponing taxation.

A large portion of current government spending is funded by indebting future generations and burdening them with the bill. This approach is irresponsible, unfair, and unethical. Budget deficits are simply taxes that are deferred, to be paid by individuals who are not yet eligible to vote, as well as those who have not even been born.

The moment has arrived to halt this fiscal recklessness by updating the U.S. Constitution to incorporate a mandate for fiscal responsibility. The American Republic was originally guided by Adam Smith’s principle of fiscal responsibility, which holds that a government should not spend without also levying taxes. It is time to codify that principle.