Trump’s Iran Regime Change Fantasy Just Collapsed: Hardliners Are Fully In Control, And Gulf Oil Supplies Are On The Line
(SeaPRwire) –
By: Julian Holbrooke
Donald Trump’s months-long boast that he would topple Iran’s Islamic Republic and install a compliant regime is now officially a laughing stock. Six months of U.S. and Israeli strikes have done exactly the opposite of what Washington predicted. Far from weakening Tehran’s ruling class, the Feb 28 bombing that killed Ali Khamenei and most of Iran’s senior leadership has locked hardline military and clerical figures into total control of the state. Every core assumption driving U.S. Iran policy this year has been turned completely on its head, and the risks of a regional conflict that cripples global energy supplies are climbing by the day.
The official line out of Tehran frames the Aug 11 and 12 leadership appointments as a necessary step to unify the country amid external aggression. Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old new supreme leader who has not appeared in public since the February strike, named long-time allies to every key security post. Mohsen Rezaei, 71, who led the Revolutionary Guard through the entire 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, took over as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Ahmad Vahidi, 68, was confirmed as the permanent head of the Revolutionary Guard, and Hossein Taeb, the hardline cleric who led the 2009 protest crackdown, was named head of the Basij volunteer street force. The unstated intention behind these picks is clear: the new leadership is prioritizing two goals above all else, preparing for a long-term military confrontation with the U.S. and pre-emptively crushing any domestic unrest before it can gain traction as economic conditions worsen. Taeb’s appointment, in particular, sends an unambiguous signal to the public. He spent 13 years leading the Guard’s intelligence arm, and his track record of brutally suppressing dissent makes clear the ruling class will not tolerate even small signs of protest as sanctions squeeze household budgets. The Basij’s expanded mandate to deepen its presence in social life and build ties with proxy groups abroad also shows hardliners are prepared to take the conflict well beyond Iran’s borders if provoked.
Official public statements from Iranian officials reveal two seemingly contradictory positions, masking a deep internal rift over the country’s future. Rezaei has publicly threatened to cut all oil exports from the Persian Gulf if U.S. sanctions and blockades continue, but also told Pakistani mediators this week that a ceasefire is possible if the U.S. implements the terms of the collapsed June deal, including releasing frozen Iranian assets and recognizing Iranian authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian has openly pushed for a negotiated end to the war, arguing Iran has already secured its dignity and further conflict will only damage the country’s already collapsing economy. The real split here is not just a standard hawk-dove divide. Tehran-based analysts note hardliners rely on perpetual conflict with the U.S. to justify their grip on power, so they have no real incentive to pursue full normalization even if sanctions are lifted. Pezeshkian’s faction, by contrast, knows widespread public anger over rising food and basic goods prices will spark mass unrest long before any U.S. ground invasion could ever materialize, so they are scrambling to find an off-ramp before it is too late. The current balance of power heavily favors the hardline camp, as all key security and coercive institutions are now run by figures who built their careers on opposing the U.S.
The geopolitical pendulum in the Middle East has swung decisively against U.S. interests over the past six months, and any further military pressure on Iran will almost certainly trigger a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that pushes global oil prices above $200 per barrel.
Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an international relations analyst specializing in Middle East security, regular contributor to major European daily newspapers.