Trump’s Interest in Greenland Grows Due to Climate Change

Second Lady Usha Vance and a U.S. delegation are scheduled to visit Greenland on Thursday. According to the White House, the purpose of the trip is to “celebrate Greenlandic culture and unity.” Vance is expected to tour historical sites, learn about Greenlandic heritage, and attend Greenland’s national dogsled race. Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are also slated to visit.

However, the visit has generated scrutiny, particularly given the Trump Administration’s continued aggressive pursuit of control in the region. During his March 4 speech to a joint session of Congress, President Donald Trump emphasized the importance of allowing Greenlanders to determine their own future, stating, “We need it really for international world security, and I think we’re going to get it one way or the other.”

The trip also coincides with Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, confronting a new reality due to climate change. Rising temperatures are accelerating the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the largest ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere. This impact, along with warming oceans, has changed the area’s landscape and environment.

At first glance, these changes might appear to create new economic and strategic opportunities that the U.S. and other nations may wish to exploit. However, the situation is more complex.

“There’s a perceived military benefit and there’s a perceived economic benefit,” explains Paul Bierman, a natural resources professor at the University of Vermont. Greenland’s strategic location in the Atlantic Ocean, between the U.S., Russia, and China, along with its vast untapped natural resources like minerals, oil, and natural gas, make it attractive. Yet, Bierman adds, “I actually think both of these [ideas] are false.”

Natural Resources

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated in 2007 that East Greenland holds 31 million barrels of undiscovered oil. Greenland also possesses minerals like lithium, niobium, and zirconium, essential for producing batteries, electronics, and electric vehicles. However, experts caution that accessing these resources is challenging.

The limited accessibility is a major reason why many resources remain untapped. Greenland’s road network is limited, and its population is less than 60,000. Additionally, much of the region is built on permafrost, posing infrastructure development challenges. “It’s a tricky ground to create infrastructure on,” notes Asa Rennermalm, a professor in the Department of Geography at Rutgers.

Climate change has fueled hopes of a mineral rush, as receding ice could make natural resources more accessible. However, many areas in Greenland are currently off-limits to extraction. In 2021, the territory’s parliament voted to halt oil and gas exploration due to environmental concerns and also banned uranium mining that same year.

Greenland’s changing climate also presents possibilities for the U.S.’s artificial intelligence goals. During a Feb. 12 symposium on the acquisition of Greenland, Rebecca Pincus, director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, mentioned the potential of the melting ice sheet to supply energy for hydropower-fueled AI data centers.

A New Trade Route

The melting sea ice has the potential to create a new trade route, and President Trump appears to be seeking control over it. “What we’re seeing globally in the Arctic is a dramatic decrease in the coverage of sea ice,” says Bierman. “And so as the Arctic Ocean has less and less sea ice, it potentially is open to vessels that are not icebreakers to get through.”

Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security advisor, has stated that Greenland’s location is crucial not only in relation to China and Russia, but also as an alternative shipping route as climate change makes the Panama Canal more unreliable. Prolonged drought, intensified by climate change, has reduced water levels in the canal, making it more difficult for ships to transit.

“[Greenland is] strategically very important to the Arctic, which is going to be the critical battleground of the future, because as the climate gets warmer, the Arctic is going to be a pathway that maybe cuts down on the usage of the Panama Canal,” O’Brien said in an interview with Sunday Morning Futures in December.

China and Russia initiated a shipping route along the Arctic Sea in 2023. In that year alone, 80 voyages reached Chinese ports via this route. Referring to the potential security risks of open Arctic waters, Trump told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte earlier this month, “We have a lot of our favorite players cruising around the coast, and we have to be careful.”

Climate Risks

Experts argue that the Trump Administration’s focus is shortsighted and overlooks a much larger problem. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, and last year, Greenland’s ice sheet lost 2.5 million liters (over 660,000 gallons) of fresh water every second.

The melting ice sheets will not simplify resource extraction. “There’s this fantasy that the ice sheets are going to melt away overnight, and all these new exotic minerals are going to appear where they used to be a thousand feet of ice,” says Bierman. “That’s not going to happen.”

Ice melt caused by climate change can lead to landslides, which can quickly damage mining infrastructure. “It’s going to destroy the port infrastructure, or, if you’re unlucky enough, destroy your mine,” says Bierman.

Moreover, complete melting of Greenland’s ice sheet would raise global sea levels by 23 feet. “Even just a fraction of that is going to have huge impacts on global sea level rise,” says Rennermalm.

It will dramatically change the rest of the world—coastal areas from Mumbai to Mar-a-Lago could be submerged. “If we don’t take care of that ice sheet. There are estimates in the many trillion dollars of economic losses if that happens, and that’s going to eclipse any critical minerals,” says Bierman. “That to me is the piece that doesn’t fit in the four year political cycle.”