Trump and Saudi Arabia: A Budding Relationship

President Trump’s second term will begin on Tuesday with a visit to Saudi Arabia, highlighting the continued importance of the U.S.-Saudi relationship under his leadership. (He is also scheduled to .) While the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations is unlikely in the near term due to the ongoing Gaza conflict, Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will have opportunities to declare the meeting a diplomatic success.

Saudi Arabia’s need for a U.S. security guarantee is not as pressing as it was during Trump’s first term. Iran, still considered the primary regional threat, is currently due to Israel’s actions against Hamas and and the of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is aligned with Tehran. Furthermore, it is doubtful that Trump could secure the necessary two-thirds Senate majority to ratify a formal defense treaty.

Nevertheless, even without progress on Saudi-Israeli ties, Trump plans to offer enhanced defense cooperation, including a public commitment to defend Saudi Arabia against attacks from Iran or its remaining allies. The Houthis may no longer be included in that list. On May 6, Trump unexpectedly announced a cease-fire with the Yemeni rebels, halting U.S. airstrikes in exchange for a cessation of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. This agreement, by Oman, allows Trump to claim a victory by reducing immediate threats to Saudi oil infrastructure before his visit.

Saudi Arabia also seeks access to advanced U.S. technologies, such as semiconductors, to support its growing tech and AI sectors, where it lags behind the UAE. To gain this access, the U.S. will likely require Saudi Arabia to limit its high-level tech collaborations with China.

The two leaders are expected to announce a . Saudi Arabia desires the capacity to enrich uranium for both civilian energy and potential military applications. U.S. negotiators have advocated for restrictions on Saudi Arabia’s ability to develop its own fuel cycle, along with stringent inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. A compromise might involve allowing limited enrichment under U.S. oversight. They are also set to sign deals totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, the crown prince in the U.S. and may provide more details this month.

Trump and MBS will also address the ongoing security concerns for Saudi Arabia related to Iran and Yemen. The crown prince aims to protect his ambitious Vision 2030 reform and development plan from threats posed by the Houthis and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In the absence of a formal defense pact with the U.S., maintaining the current détente with Iran is particularly crucial, especially if pressure from Israel or the Trump Administration provokes Iranian retaliation against U.S. regional partners.

To mitigate the risk of becoming a target, the Saudi government Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to Iran in April, marking the highest-level visit between the two countries in decades. Riyadh has also offered to mediate negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding Tehran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief.

While the U.S.-Houthi cease-fire has reduced tensions, it remains unstable. Any renewed escalation, such as , could still trigger retaliatory attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure or U.S. bases within the kingdom.

Given these factors, President Trump and the Saudi crown prince will likely display cordiality and make significant pledges during Trump’s visit to the Middle East. However, the realities of the region—in Gaza, Iran, and the waters off Yemen—present risks that both leaders are keen to avoid.