Trudeau’s Popularity Plummets in Canada

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Incumbent leaders and parties in numerous countries have faced setbacks in recent elections, including the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Leaders in these countries are facing challenges ahead of upcoming elections. Germany, however, is not expected to hold national elections until next year. This global trend of voter dissatisfaction suggests a widespread desire for change.

Canada’s Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is facing mounting pressure. The party, which won a majority in 2015, saw its power reduced to a minority government in 2019. While they retained their position after a snap election in 2021, the Liberals suffered a significant defeat in a recent by-election in Montreal. The Bloc Québécois, a separatist party, claimed victory in the by-election, signaling a potential shift in political tides.

Recent polls indicate that Trudeau’s approval ratings have plummeted. A September poll by Angus Reid revealed that a majority of Canadians disapprove of Trudeau’s performance as Prime Minister. The polls suggest that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is gaining significant ground. Voters are expressing dissatisfaction with the Liberals’ handling of issues such as jobs, the cost of living, taxes, immigration, and crime, and are leaning towards the Conservatives.

Amidst these challenges, some Liberal MPs have begun advocating for Trudeau’s departure as Prime Minister and party leader, hoping that a new face could improve the party’s prospects in the upcoming elections. However, polls do not suggest that a change in leadership would necessarily result in improved outcomes for the Liberal Party.

While the direction of polling is clear, the timing of the next election remains uncertain. The next federal election is scheduled for October 2025. However, due to the Liberals’ minority government status, opposition parties could combine forces to force an early election at any time. A no-confidence vote could lead to an election as early as November. Even if the Liberals manage to survive this challenge, the need to pass a federal budget in April likely makes a spring election a realistic possibility.

The Bloc Québécois has emerged as a key player in the upcoming elections. Their leader, Yves-François Blanchet, has issued a demand to Trudeau’s government to back a bill that would raise pensions and exempt certain agricultural sectors from future trade negotiations. Blanchet has warned that if his demands are not met, the Bloc will collaborate with the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party to topple Trudeau’s government.

The potential exists for the Bloc Québécois to gain a larger number of seats than the Liberals in the next election. If this scenario unfolds, Blanchet could potentially become the Leader of the Official Opposition. This outcome could pave the way for a political shift in Quebec, a predominantly French-speaking province. While Quebec voters are dissatisfied with Trudeau, they do not have a strong affinity for Poilievre. A Conservative government, reliant on votes from Ontario and Western provinces, could potentially leave Quebec voters feeling underrepresented.

The current situation leaves the Liberal Party in a precarious position. It remains to be seen whether Liberal MPs will convince Trudeau to step down and how quickly other parties can force an election. The global trend of voter dissatisfaction with incumbent leaders could further complicate the situation in Canada. The Bloc Québécois, seeking a greater degree of autonomy for Quebec, could play a pivotal role in the upcoming election.