The World Cup Jobs Paradox: Why Wall Street Thinks the BLS Got It Wrong

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By: Raymond Vance

Jamie Cox didn’t hold back on the June jobs report. The Harris Financial Group managing partner called the data misleading. He said it should be disregarded. His main gripe? Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs in June. This happened while the U.S. hosted the World Cup—an event that draws millions of fans. Cox isn’t alone. Analysts at big banks and financial firms are doubting the numbers more than ever.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported June job gains of 57,000. That’s half what experts expected. The leisure sector’s loss was the biggest since the pandemic. BLS data gets revised as late survey responses come in. A Pantheon Macroeconomics chart shows revisions usually go down. But this time, the leisure number makes no sense.

Pantheon Macroeconomics chart showing job data revisions over time

Real economic activity tells a different story. Bank of America’s card spending rose 5.4% year-on-year during the World Cup group stage. Non-local spending—from fans—jumped 17.4%. Pimco’s Tiffany Wilding expected the sector to get a World Cup hiring boost. RSM’s Joe Brusuelas said to take the report with a grain of salt. He thinks July will bring an upward revision. UBS’s Paul Donovan pointed to off-kilter seasonal adjustments. EY-Parthenon’s Gregory Daco was stunned by the weak hospitality number.

Bank of America chart showing card spending during World Cup

This distrust in official data is a problem. It chips away at the credibility of U.S. economic indicators. Over time, this could hurt global confidence in the U.S. economy. It may even raise the government’s long-term borrowing costs.

Author bio: Raymond Vance, a senior macro-economist and consultant to central banking policy research working groups.