The Next Pope’s Selection Process: Who Participates and Influenced Past Choices?

When white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney on March 13, 2013, signaling to the world that the 115 cardinal electors had made their decision, few might have anticipated the election of the Catholic Church’s 266th Pope to be .

At 76 years old, Bergoglio was generally considered too old to be a leading contender for Pope. Typically, bishops and cardinals submit their resignations at 75. The cardinal electors, always choosing from among themselves, have an age limit of 80.

Coming from Buenos Aires, Argentina, Bergoglio became the and the first non-European Pope in over 12 centuries. He was also the first Jesuit Pope, representing a Catholic order known for its dedication to serving the marginalized. Upon being chosen, Bergoglio adopted the name Francis, inspired by Saint Francis of Assisi, known for his simple life and service to the poor. Overall, Francis was seen as less than his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI.

With , up to 135 cardinals will be eligible to vote for his successor. Francis appointed 108 of them, or 80%, during his time as Pope. This has led some to speculate whether the late Pope effectively ” the ” to ensure his legacy continues. However, experts suggest the election will be as as Francis’ own.

“The papacy’s long history suggests it’s very hard for a Pope to predetermine the next election after his death,” Miles Pattenden, a Catholic Church historian at Oxford University, told TIME. Cardinals are “independent thinkers,” and even those chosen by Francis might hold different views.

“It’s an oversimplification to assume cardinals vote strictly along ideological lines like members of political parties,” Pattenden says. “That’s not how the Vatican operates.”

Pattenden also mentions an Italian saying: “After a well-fed Pope comes a lean one.”

“This means cardinals often focus on the perceived shortcomings of the previous Pope, seeking a successor who addresses those flaws.” Cardinals will primarily consider whether they desire change or continuity.

Pattenden notes that this conclave is likely to differ from past ones. First, it involves the largest number of eligible cardinal electors ever; exceeding the traditional limit of 120, though Pattenden doubts this cap will be enforced. Second, the cardinals are now more geographically diverse than before.

In 2013, Europeans made up 51% of the cardinal electors. Now, , while are from the Asia-Pacific region, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, 12% from Sub-Saharan Africa, 10% from North America, and 3% from the Middle East and North Africa.

Francis played a significant part in this shift. Of the 108 cardinals he appointed, 38% were from Europe, 19% from Latin America and the Caribbean, 19% from the Asia-Pacific, 12% from sub-Saharan Africa, 7% from North America, and 4% from the Middle East and North Africa.

Francis appointed cardinals from 25 countries that had never had one before. His appointments include , the first cardinal from Haiti, , the first cardinal from Myanmar, and , the first from India’s Dalit caste.

Many papabili lists include candidates who could be historic firsts as pontiffs from Asia, such as Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, or Africa, such as Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson.

Francis prioritized inclusion within the Vatican, Pattenden explains, looking worldwide for cardinals, often from smaller Catholic communities that lacked previous representation. He believed that “it shouldn’t just be the case that big, well-established, rich, old Catholic communities get representation all the time.” Ideologically, “Francis can’t necessarily have known how all of these new cardinals will think, certainly their colleagues won’t know—they may not even know themselves.”

Carlos Eire, a professor of history and religious studies at Yale University, believes those appointed by Francis are likely to be ideologically left-leaning, noting Francis didn’t appoint many conservative bishops to the College of Cardinals and that theological diversity wasn’t as prioritized as geographic diversity. For example, Francis appointed American in 2022, known for his on immigration, the environment, and LGBTQ+ inclusion, while reportedly more conservative archbishops. “When it comes to religious issues,” says Eire, “it is also highly likely that they will lean away from traditionalism.”

“Voting for a Pope is much like any other election; voters have preferences,” Eire adds. “The only difference between this conclave and the House of Representatives or the European Parliament is the cardinals’ prayers for guidance from the Holy Spirit.”

However, Pattenden suggests charisma, competence, and piety might be more influential than ideology.

The geographic diversity of the College of Cardinals could make this conclave particularly unpredictable. “They don’t know each other as well as previous groups of cardinals will have done, and that’s bound to have an impact,” Pattenden says. “When you have to focus on one person’s name to write down on that ballot paper, it may or may not be easier if you actually know the guy or if you’ve just met him a week or two before.”

If familiarity prevails, Pattenden suggests Tagle from the Philippines, known for his charisma, or Pietro Parolin, the highest-ranking cardinal in the conclave, would be frontrunners.

If no candidate secures the required two-thirds majority, cardinals are likely to “start casting a wider net,” Pattenden says, considering candidates who weren’t their initial choices.

“It’s a very secretive process… The Church is very careful to keep the details unknown,” Pattenden says, and later reports are often unverified.

“This is important theologically: the idea is that God, through the Holy Spirit, inspires the cardinals’ choice. But the more details we know about who said what and who voted for whom, the less believable that idea becomes.”