Stablecoin challengers aim to dethrone Visa but confront a formidable challenge

(SeaPRwire) –   A debate erupted on X last week that, by social media standards, stood out for its civility and depth. The discussion centered on whether Visa will retain its dominance in payments as agentic commerce emerges, or if the future belongs instead to blockchain-native entities leveraging stablecoins.

The conversation began when the cofounder of Modern Treasury questioned why agents need stablecoins at all, given that they can easily memorize 16-digit card numbers. Y Combinator cofounder Paul Graham countered, “Because then you have to add card fees. Why drag Visa along with us into the future like a software virus?”

In conflicts between entrenched incumbents and emerging technologies, my instinct is typically to support the disruptors. Consider the fates of once-dominant firms like Nokia, Kodak, and Blockbuster. However, declaring Visa doomed in the age of agents and stablecoins is far more difficult.

One key reason, as some participants noted in response to Graham’s tweet, is that Visa’s fees are approximately 12 basis points—relatively low. The 3% to 4% charged on credit card transactions goes to banks, not Visa, and much of it flows back to consumers through rewards programs. Additionally, Visa benefits from deep network effects via a five-sided ecosystem offering global reach and built-in fraud resolution. This isn’t just any ordinary monopoly facing disruption.

The challenge is intensified by the fact that credit card giants aren’t standing idle. As one analyst observed, both Visa and Mastercard are ensuring they remain orchestrators rather than victims of stablecoins and agentic commerce. Notably, Cuy Sheffield, Visa’s crypto lead, joined the X debate to suggest his company could integrate stablecoins for instant on-chain merchant settlements—a move he implied could neutralize the disruptors’ edge.

This underscores how unlikely it is that Visa will disappear soon. Still, I remain optimistic about the disruptors. Programmable money and blockchain infrastructure enable transaction fees to drop well below one basis point—dramatically lower than Visa’s 12 bps. That gap echoes Jeff Bezos’s famous dictum: “Your margin is my opportunity.” Crypto challengers like MoonPay, Stripe, Coinbase, and AgentCash undoubtedly share this view.

Finally, don’t count out the disruptors too early. New technologies foster novel behaviors, and in the era of agentic commerce, entirely new business models will emerge around data, APIs, and beyond. It’s improbable that Visa will be at the forefront of these innovations. As the crypto world often says: when it comes to agentic commerce, we’re still in the first inning.

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@.com
@jeffjohnroberts