SpaceX’s $2T IPO Frenzy: Why Day-One Buys Are a Sucker’s Bet (And What to Do Instead)

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(SeaPRwire) –   By: Lucas Caldwell

The SpaceX IPO frenzy isn’t just about a space company—it’s about FOMO on the next trillion-dollar tech giant. Investors are calling SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI the “Magnificent Three,” and retail traders are scrambling to get in. A financial advisor’s client even asked for 10 shares like a lottery ticket—small enough to not hurt, but enough to feel part of the buzz.

SpaceX went public June12 with 500 million shares traded, the second-heaviest first-day volume in Nasdaq history (behind Facebook’s 2012 debut). It priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $160.95—19% up. Early investors hold 12.5 billion shares at an average $6.48, so retail buyers are paying a steep markup.

History tells us to slow down. The median IPO drops 26% three years after its first-day close. Biotechs Abgenix and Enzo Biochem had stellar debuts (2071% and 2445% up) but fizzled. Moderna, though, rewarded patient investors as the fifth-highest return among 1020 life-science IPOs from 1980-2024. SpaceX spiked to $225 days post-IPO then fell back to $160—missing day one isn’t a loss.

Value creation doesn’t stop at IPO. Wellington’s Matt Witheiler notes Apple was the first $1T public company in 2018; now there are 16, with Nvidia nearing $5T. Anthropic hit $47B run rate in May2026, OpenAI $25B early 2026—real revenue, not dotcom-era eyeballs. Their addressable markets need to be unbounded, like SpaceX’s orbital data centers.

Don’t skip the prospectus. SpaceX’s S-1 admits Mars colonies are unlikely but gives Musk shares anyway. He controls the company via Class B super-voting shares. Osterweis’s Bryan Wong says picks & shovels (infrastructure/tooling firms) are safer—better odds of the next Nvidia than the next Enzo.

In three years, most retail investors who bought Anthropic or OpenAI on day one will wish they’d waited for the hype to fade or bet on their supply chain partners.

Author bio: Lucas Caldwell, a tech opinion leader with millions of followers on X/Twitter, focuses on IPO trends and retail investment strategies.