Preparing for a 2°C Warmer World: A Question of When, Not If
A new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) avoids terms like “emergency” or “disaster.” However, its findings should evoke a sense of urgency and alarm in anyone familiar with climate science.
The report, published this week, projects that global temperatures will remain at or near record highs. It suggests the possibility that the temperature increase since the Industrial Revolution will approach 2°C by 2030. This warming already occurred briefly in 2024. Policymakers previously identified 2°C as a critical threshold, beyond which climate effects could become severe and irreversible. The WMO report confirms that the world has entered this danger zone, with the risks associated with global warming poised to escalate significantly.
This increasingly critical atmospheric situation, as highlighted by the report, should prompt companies to urgently reduce their emissions. Emission reduction is crucial to preventing further deterioration. However, companies should also assess their preparedness for the changes expected within the next five years on the path to a 2°C warmer world.
“We are in a climate emergency, and the situation worsens every year,” Sonia I. Seneviratne, a professor at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science of the ETH Zurich, stated earlier this year. “It’s not necessarily making the headlines, because there are also many other crises, but we shouldn’t forget it.”
The WMO report details several concerning predictions for the next five years. Temperatures during the Northern Hemisphere summer are expected to exceed historical averages “almost everywhere.” Warming in the Arctic during the Northern winter is projected to be particularly extreme, with temperature anomalies more than 3.5 times the global average. Arctic sea ice is also expected to continue its decline.
Perhaps more significantly, though not explicitly covered in the report, are the secondary impacts of a warmer planet. According to the U.N.’s climate science body, heat waves will become more frequent and intense between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming. Crop yields will decrease, and coral reefs could disappear entirely.
This poses significant challenges for a wide range of companies. Infrastructure will face increased risks of floods and fires. Demand for air conditioning will strain electric utilities. Farmers and agricultural businesses will face crop losses and health risks due to heat and extreme weather. These factors will likely create a substantial economic headwind, slowing growth. A report from Swiss Re, a reinsurance company, estimates that 2°C of warming could reduce global GDP by 11% by mid-century.
Many sophisticated companies recognize these impending challenges. Studies indicate that a growing number of firms are disclosing the risks that the physical impacts of climate change pose to their businesses. However, many are still in the early stages of addressing these risks. Few can financially quantify the risks, and most lack comprehensive preparation plans.
Even the most proactive firms face the challenge of fully understanding the destructive potential of hotter temperatures and, consequently, how to prepare effectively. With each fraction of a degree of global temperature increase, we venture further into uncharted territory that strains our scientific understanding.
Climate change deniers exploit this uncertainty to argue for slowing emission reduction efforts, questioning the justification for significant spending on an issue that is not fully understood. However, the current uncertainty is far more alarming than even exaggerated climate change predictions. The new climate reality suggests more frequent and seemingly unpredictable extreme weather events. Over the next five years, we will gain a clearer understanding of who has prepared adequately.
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