Poland’s New President Set to Empower the Far Right

Posted on by

Poland’s presidential election saw right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, a historian without prior political experience, unexpectedly defeat a centrist-backed candidate in the June 1st runoff. This continues a trend of establishment candidates struggling worldwide. Nawrocki’s inauguration is set for August 6th, promising a challenging period for Prime Minister Tusk.

Nawrocki’s presidential veto power will allow him to block Tusk’s efforts to ease abortion restrictions and reform the judicial system, which is currently filled with judges aligned with the previous Law and Justice Party (PiS) government. The EU has called for this judicial overhaul. Beyond blocking Tusk’s agenda, Nawrocki is expected to exploit potential divisions within Tusk’s coalition, especially within the conservative Polish People’s Party.

Tusk’s ally, Rafal Trzaskowski’s narrow defeat in the presidential race, highlights growing discontent among Poles due to rising living costs and the prolonged presence of up to 2.5 million Ukrainians. While supporting Ukraine’s defense and opposing Russia are widely shared views, some believe Ukrainians should return to their home country. A recent survey indicated declining support for accepting Ukrainian refugees. Nawrocki’s ability to obstruct Tusk’s policies may fuel further dissatisfaction, potentially benefiting right-wing parties in the 2027 parliamentary elections.

Despite this setback, Tusk secured a victory on June 11th. He is anticipated to reshuffle the government, concentrating on popular policies. This could involve reducing the number of ministries, especially those related to economic management, and rewarding key coalition partners with prominent positions. The government is likely to prioritize social programs and subsidies to ease economic anxieties, promote affordable housing initiatives, and avoid policies that the President will veto. Tusk’s party may also try to take the wind out of anti-immigration sentiment by focusing on stronger border protection laws. Even before the election, Tusk tightened regulations on the right to asylum, moving closer to the far-right’s anti-immigrant stance.

However, these measures are merely reactive, not a strategy for future electoral success. Tusk’s Civic Platform party is expected to relax abortion laws by its political base. (Currently, Polish law permits abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or a serious threat to the woman’s life or health.) His supporters also want him to restore the rule of law after the PiS government weakened the independence of some political institutions. As former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said, “elections have consequences.” Nawrocki will leverage the presidency to challenge Tusk on the European stage. While he lacks authority over foreign or security policy, he can use his alignment with leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and his criticism of EU conformity to highlight Poland’s polarization and question its commitment to closer alignment with EU policies and values.

Support for Ukraine and its European aspirations may face new challenges. Although Nawrocki supports Ukraine’s war effort, he questions Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership and will advocate for reducing aid to Ukrainian refugees in Poland. While the President cannot unilaterally create policy, his criticism of increasingly unpopular pro-Ukraine measures will create difficulties for both Ukrainians and Prime Minister Tusk.

“`