Mark Carney’s Triumph: Decoding Canada’s Election Victory

Although Donald Trump’s name wasn’t on the ballot, he appears to be the biggest loser of the night.

Mark Carney secured the election by emphasizing the threat of annexation every day for six weeks. This anti-annexation message facilitated the Liberal Party’s remarkable recovery, a swift, unprecedented 30-point turnaround.

In January, the election seemed certain for Pierre Poilievre, who had been leading in the polls for over two years. Poilievre had successfully convinced Canadians of the need to replace the Liberals and was preparing for office.

“Axe the tax,” he repeated frequently, and promised lower taxes.

He built a seemingly solid base of support for his platform, which included tax cuts, reduced regulations, a crackdown on crime, and removing obstacles to housing and free enterprise.

Then, Trump’s statements began, alarming Canadians. The Liberals, in desperation, replaced Trudeau with Carney. Conservative support immediately declined, leaving them puzzled about what went wrong.

Ontario’s Conservative Premier, Doug Ford, has spoken about this. A relatable and charismatic figure from suburban Toronto, he secured his third majority government in February by pledging to protect Ontario during the trade war. As a former admirer of the U.S. president, he mirrored the sense of betrayal felt by Canadians after their longtime ally turned against them.

Ford had a friendly breakfast with Carney at a Toronto diner in March. The formal central banker and the pragmatic businessman connected well, forming a good-cop-bad-cop strategy to address the ongoing threats from the U.S.

This gave Carney a significant advantage. “Ford signaled to voters in the Greater Toronto Area that Carney represented a change from Trudeau, especially regarding the economy,” stated Gerald Butts, an advisor to both Trudeau and Carney. “Some voters who had dismissed the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau became interested in Mark Carney.”

In contrast, Poilievre was slow to respond when Trump began calling Trudeau names, faulting the Liberals for not addressing border security instead of directly challenging Trump’s attacks.

This approach did not resonate in Ontario, which conducts approximately $500 billion CAD in annual trade with the U.S., and where nearly 100,000 jobs are tied to the auto industry. It also failed to resonate in much of the rest of the country. “We observed approximately 8 million voters shifting to the Liberal Party of Canada within roughly six weeks,” noted pollster Frank Graves of EKOS Research. “This wasn’t a superficial or casual change. A powerful force drove it, stemming from the negative reaction to the Donald Trump 2.0 spectacle.”

A quicker change in stance on Trump might have kept Poilievre competitive, but he’s known as a relentless attacker, not a consensus-builder. For years, Poilievre’s uncompromising attacks on the Liberals were influenced by the MAGA movement, which made him a liability.

This contributed to a significant number of voters who typically support the left-leaning NDP and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, also on the left, switching to the Liberals. The electorate has become somewhat polarized, making Canada resemble a two-party system, with the Liberals being the larger party.

Because Poilievre is largely unpopular with much of the electorate, he was left with no other option but to try to convince Canadians that Carney was unfit for office. But Carney, while new to politics, possesses an impressive background. He led the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequently the Bank of England during the Brexit period.

Poilievre’s Tories labeled him an elitist, claiming he was “just like Justin,” and accused him of being dishonest. Their media allies even brought out former British Prime Minister Liz Truss—whose time in office was disastrous—to criticize him, but nothing had any effect.

Carney may not be able to excite a crowd like Trudeau or Poilievre, but his calm demeanor and air of competence has reassured a worried nation.

Despite appearing as a centrist, Carney has pledged to increase spending beyond Trudeau’s record deficits, contending that Canada needs to invest its way out of the trade war that threatens to push the country into recession.

Poilievre might have had a chance if the election focused on taxes and spending, steps to make life more affordable, and jumpstarting the economy, but Trump wouldn’t stay out of it. On election day, he appealed to the “Great people of Canada,” encouraging Canadians to vote to become “the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America.”

Canadians don’t want that, and it will now be Carney’s job to make sure it doesn’t happen.