Iran’s Regime Faces Mounting Instability “`
Recent months have significantly weakened Iran’s capacity to threaten regional adversaries. Israel’s security forces have severely damaged the leadership of Iran’s two most powerful allied militias. The unexpected situation in Syria cost Iran a crucial ally and disrupted its supply lines to Hezbollah. While Yemeni Houthi rebels continue attacks across the Red Sea, Israel’s more assertive actions have resulted in direct hits on their fighters. Recognizing Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, Iran acknowledges that Moscow’s needs outweigh its willingness to assist. In essence, Iran’s regional proxy empire, the so-called Axis of Resistance, has suffered considerable setbacks.
Israel’s actions, including operations on Iranian soil in 2024, demonstrate Tehran’s limited capacity for retaliation. The return of a U.S. President who believes Iran responds only to strength means increased scrutiny of any potential Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Both the U.S. and Israel face the temptation to escalate pressure to the point of military intervention.
Iran’s internal challenges may pose an even greater threat to the regime. Its sanctions-hit economy is struggling. Currency devaluation, soaring inflation, and widespread public anger are creating significant instability.
Recent public discontent centers on energy shortages causing blackouts, school closures, and business disruptions due to a natural gas crisis. Years of mismanagement and corruption have left Iran, a country with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, facing energy deficits. (Instead, Iran burns oil, resulting in some of the world’s highest pollution levels.)
The regime’s attempts to enforce strict social rules and censorship have reignited protests similar to those of 2022-2023. For many Iranians, the mandatory hijab requirement adds insult to injury caused by economic hardship. Presidential election turnout last year reached only 50%, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction, even among hardline supporters, frustrated by Iran’s failure to effectively support Assad in Syria after substantial investments.
Iran’s “reformist” President faces the daunting task of addressing these failures, despite maintaining support from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Parliament Speaker. However, many who once hoped for positive change now view him as weak.
A major question looms: what will happen upon the death of the 85-year-old, ailing Khamenei? While powerbrokers within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the clerical establishment have prepared for succession, this will be the first transfer of supreme power since 1989 and only the second in the Islamic Republic’s history.
Some within the U.S. and Israeli governments believe that Iran is vulnerable enough for a decisive push to topple the regime. However, Iran’s substantial missile and drone arsenal maintains its considerable military threat. If cornered domestically or internationally, Iran’s leaders could still take actions that could lead to regional conflict and potentially draw in the U.S. Iran’s weakness, therefore, poses a significant global risk.