Hezbollah’s Strength Questioned Amid Israeli Offensive
As Israel conducts a military operation in Lebanon that is unprecedented in 21st century warfare, it’s unclear what, if anything, can stop it. Successive strikes against Hezbollah, the main regional threat to Israel, have thrown the militant group into disarray; it continues to fight, but seems unable to deter Israel’s aggressive escalation.
Lebanese people are anxiously awaiting the full extent of Israel’s objectives in Lebanon, and how far Tel Aviv’s war machine will go. The death toll has reached and are displaced in a country with a population exceeding .
Before Israel’s recent escalation, Hezbollah and Israel had been engaged in a back-and-forth exchange of fire for nearly a year. The group launched rockets at Israeli positions on Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with Gaza.
Israel has been pushing for a solution that would force Hezbollah to retreat from the “Blue Line,” the de facto Lebanese-Israel border, and enable tens of thousands of Israelis evacuated from northern communities to return home safely. Hezbollah stated that it would cease its rocket fire . Meanwhile, it believed its simmering conflict with Israel was manageable, and within the so-called “” that had prevailed between Hezbollah and Israel since their last major war in 2006.
Hezbollah was clearly wrong. As Israel effectively a Gaza ceasefire, it chose to increase military pressure on Lebanon. Beginning on Sept. 18, Israel thousands of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah members and launched a of bombing on Beirut’s southern suburbs and Lebanon’s south and east. In targeted strikes, Israel also eliminated the group’s leadership, including Secretary-General . Now the Israeli military has into southern Lebanon.
Israel’s relentless military-intelligence campaign against Hezbollah has destabilized the group. Even as Israel’s attacks continue, Hezbollah has failed to mount an effective retaliation, or to unleash the that had been considered its most potent deterrent.
Israel’s ground incursion has reportedly met with fierce resistance from Hezbollah, and at least have been killed. However, from the air over Lebanon, Israel can now seemingly bomb at will; any previous deterrence has crumbled. Beirutis are forced to wait anxiously for on X notifying them which buildings and city blocks will be targeted. Several attacks have . Elsewhere in the city, Israeli drones can be heard buzzing overhead. In southern Lebanon, Israel to evacuate further and further north—now above , more than 40 miles from the country’s southernmost point.
In , deputy leader Naim Qassem insisted that Hezbollah will not cease fire or abandon Gaza. He also emphasized that the group still possesses its arsenal of medium- and long-range missiles. Yet Hezbollah seems to have only used these weapons sparingly, if at all. Was this a deliberate strategic decision? Or is Hezbollah too disorganized to utilize these arms?
Hezbollah’s more , they will continue to fight Israel’s ground offensive. However, no one knows for sure how effectively Israeli strikes have damaged these units and their military infrastructure, including tunnel networks. Now these forces are likely to face intense Israeli bombing and artillery fire as the IDF attempts to advance.
The main question is what Israel’s ultimate goal might be. Israel might be trying to inflict enough damage on Hezbollah and its popular base to try to dictate a one-sided diplomatic settlement regarding the Blue Line. But given significant military gains in recent weeks, it may also be attempting to impose a solution unilaterally—potentially occupying parts of southern Lebanon and establishing a depopulated buffer zone. It’s unclear, however, how such a buffer would prevent Hezbollah’s rocket and missile attacks on northern Israel, given that the group possesses long-range weapons.
The U.S. is unlikely to restrain Israel’s military push against Hezbollah; in fact, it appears to be it. Biden Administration officials claim they have that Israel’s offensive will be “limited,” but Israel has violated Biden’s red lines before.
Whatever the outcome of , Lebanon now faces an open-ended campaign of Israeli aerial bombing. Years of suggest that, once Israel feels it no longer faces a real deterrent, it will strike suspected enemy targets at will.
Lebanon was already facing a dire situation before the past 12 months—still struggling to recover from one of the worst economic crises in modern history amidst a power vacuum. An endless Israeli war is the last thing the country needs.