Germany’s Election: A Crucial Moment for Global Climate Action
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Germany has historically been a leading force in addressing climate change and transitioning to clean energy. Their Climate Action Law, a significant piece of legislation passed in December 2023, set goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2045. It also established specific annual emission targets for different sectors until 2030.
Former Chancellor Angela Merkel was often called the for her international work on reducing emissions. Climate change was a key consideration for voters when choosing her successor in the 2021 German election.
However, as Germans prepare to vote in a snap election on Feb. 23, climate change isn’t as dominant an issue as it once was, according to Marc Weissgerber, executive director of the E3G climate think tank. He states, “From the voter’s perspective, the priority is not as big anymore.”
A January poll indicated that immigration and the economy were voters’ top concerns, with only 13% citing environmental and climate protection – a similar trend to the U.S. elections last fall.
Resetting priorities
This change in public opinion is also reflected in politicians’ stances. The Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), a far-right party currently second in national , has cast doubt on the reality of climate change and, echoing President Trump, has advocated for Germany to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords.
While polls suggest the AfD might perform well, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, is currently ahead. Merz, while not as explicitly anti-climate as the AfD, has pledged to shift away from the previous government’s environmentally-focused policies, which aimed to stimulate the economy through climate spending. Instead, he intends to prioritize the nation’s economic and industrial strength.
On the campaign trail, he stated that recent economic policy had been oriented “almost exclusively toward climate protection,” according to . He added, “I want to say it clearly as I mean it: We will and we must change that.”
Analysts suggest Merz’s statements indicate a growing perception that the country’s green energy goals are clashing with the desire for economic growth. Germany’s manufacturing sector, a long-time driver of its economy, is .
Olivia Lazard, a senior research fellow at Carnegie Europe, notes, “Climate action is taking a back seat compared to industrial action, as Germany pushes to reposition its economic and industrial model. The prices of energy and material consumption have risen in Germany, which creates a lot of economic anxiety and political economic polarization.”
A costly transition
Underlying this shift is a challenge faced by politicians in numerous countries: the transition to green energy has come at a cost for Germany that many now deem too high.
In April 2024, Germany’s Federal Network Agency, which regulates the country’s energy networks, that the cost of the renewable energy transition, estimated at 450 billion euros ($498.4 billion USD), would be passed on to consumers through higher energy bills. This occurs as Germans continue to face high fossil fuel prices following Russia’s war in Ukraine – as of , German households were paying 74% more for gas than before the war.
Furthermore, natural gas, intended as a bridge to decarbonization due to its lower CO2 emissions compared to coal and oil, became more difficult to access. Lazar explains, “It sort of sent the German narrative and the political mobilization and economic mobilization for the climate fight into disarray, not out of unwillingness to do so, but out of difficulty from an industrial and economic capacity.”
Consequently, the green transition has become less popular with voters— are feeling the strain of rising living costs. Robert Orttung, a professor of sustainability and international affairs at George Washington University, says, “They have taken an aggressive stance to move away [from fossil fuels], but it’s not always proven cost effective, and cost for most people is the key.”
Beyond Berlin
The possibility of a shift in the German government’s priorities has implications far beyond Berlin, with experts warning of potential global consequences.
Germany possesses Europe’s largest economy and has, in recent years, met its climate financing goals for less wealthy nations.
Currently, with and the rollback of climate initiatives under the Trump administration, Germany could solidify its position as a climate leader. However, if Germany also retreats, the repercussions could be felt across Europe. “It would certainly have a huge impact if Germany falters,” Lazzard states.
Consider the Loss and Damage fund, a crucial global climate initiative established at the 2022 climate summit (COP27) in Egypt to assist lower-income countries in recovering from natural disasters.
A key objective of last year’s COP29 climate summit was to secure greater financial commitments from wealthy nations to support the fund. Germany pledged 94 million Euros ($100 million USD) to the fund in Nov. 2023, but the total $700 million pledged by wealthy nations by the end of COP29 “doesn’t come close” to meeting demand, according to U.N. Secretary-General . With the Trump Administration reducing funding for climate initiatives, other high-income countries might be asked to compensate – though many are hesitant due to similar budgetary and populist pressures as Germany.
Orttung asks, “Whether the Germans and the Europeans in general are willing to step up and really start to pay more for this kind of policy is going to be a big question mark.”