Former Negotiator Asserts 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal Remains the Optimal Strategy

The true extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain. Yet, as contradictory reports surface from the Trump Administration and elsewhere, one fact is clear: Trump’s unsuccessful diplomatic approach led to the current chaotic situation. 

I speak from experience. A decade ago, I was in Vienna, serving on the U.S. team that negotiated an agreement to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. 

Those negotiations culminated in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. It was Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw from the Iran nuclear accord that ultimately brought about the dangerous circumstances in the Middle East today. 

The JCPOA was the outcome of a sustained campaign of principled, effective U.S. diplomacy. President Obama began laying the groundwork for this nuclear deal immediately upon taking office in 2009. His stance—then, as now, shared across the U.S. political spectrum—was that the U.S. cannot tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. At the time, Iran asserted that its nuclear energy program was exclusively for peaceful applications. However, given evidence of Iran’s prior attempts to acquire a nuclear bomb before 2003, the U.S. could not simply accept this claim. 

To secure the nuclear agreement, Obama and his national security team mobilized international support to increase pressure on Tehran. The U.S., E.U., and other allies imposed severe sanctions. The U.N. Security Council followed suit with extensive and stringent measures in June 2010. 

These sanctions were effective: they persuaded Iran to come to the negotiating table. To iron out the technical provisions of a deal, the U.S. then assembled a team of leading career diplomats, nuclear scientists, lawyers, and sanctions experts. It was a remarkable group of American patriots and professionals. It was my distinct honor to be part of that team.

Our objective was to offer Iran phased and reversible sanctions relief in exchange for far-reaching restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. To maximize our leverage, we coordinated with other nations, including not only European allies but also Russia and China. It was demanding, precise, high-stakes work—continuing for months on end.

The effort proved fruitful. Iran agreed to substantial limits on its nuclear activities, including the export of approximately 98% of its enriched uranium stockpile out of the country. Iran’s commitments were then subjected to intrusive and permanent international monitoring. By the close of the Obama Administration, the deal was functioning as intended, demonstrating compliance. 

Trump’s abrupt withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 led to the predictable result: Iran’s nuclear program surged forward, breaking free from the deal’s constraints.

When Trump returned to office in January, he launched a swift attempt to negotiate a new agreement. But it bore a striking resemblance to the deal negotiated by Obama, with one nuclear expert calling the Trump framework a “repackaged JCPOA.”

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sabotaged these talks with airstrikes on June 12. The U.S. conducted its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22. 

Trump asserts the matter is now resolved. But what will become of the tons of enriched uranium that Iran stockpiled after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA? How much Iranian nuclear infrastructure remains intact? Will Iran ever welcome back intrusive international monitoring of its nuclear activities, as stipulated in the JCPOA?

To resolve these questions, the Trump Administration will need to undertake the tedious, difficult work of pursuing complex negotiations. Talks are slated to resume next week.

However, it will require a high degree of technical expertise and diplomatic capability. And the timing could not be worse, as Trump and Elon Musk’s ideological battle against the so-called “Deep State” has depleted and demoralized the ranks of government experts whose support was crucial to achieving the JCPOA in the first place. 

This unfortunate saga has reminded me of what has been lost in the Trump era. The JCPOA was a product of effective and principled American diplomacy, undertaken in close coordination with our closest allies. It was a collective effort by countless government professionals and specialists, all motivated by patriotism and a sense of mission, and operating in an era where they were praised, not disparaged. It was a triumph of dialogue and diplomacy over bluster and bombs.

A decade ago, that approach delivered positive outcomes for the American people and the world. I am concerned about what lies ahead.