Escalation Risks in the India-Pakistan Crisis
The recent attack has pushed India and Pakistan into their most precarious situation in years. While a full-blown war seems unlikely, the potential for escalation between these two nuclear-armed nations should be a global concern.
On April 22, armed individuals targeted tourists enjoying a picnic in a scenic area near Pahalgam, in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir. Twenty-six people were killed, including 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of supporting the attack. Islamabad denies any involvement. A group, viewed by New Delhi as an extension of the Pakistani jihadist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility on Telegram before retracting the statement.
Both India and Pakistan are on high alert due to the increased tensions in the predominantly Muslim region, which is partly administered by each country, though both claim the entire territory.
On Sunday, the Indian Express cited an unnamed senior government source who warned of “military retaliation.” On Wednesday, Pakistan’s information minister announced via a rare late-night post that his government possessed “credible intelligence” indicating an impending Indian military action within 24 to 36 hours.
The stated deadline passed without any incident. High-ranking military officials from both India and Pakistan have reportedly communicated through a hotline, suggesting that communication channels remain open. Simultaneously, major global powers, including the U.S. and China, have urged de-escalation, a stance that puts India, which seeks the freedom to respond to the attack as it sees fit, at a disadvantage.
However, it would be unwise to assume that the crisis has passed. The Pahalgam attack was particularly brutal, with numerous victims shot in the head. Targeting civilians, especially tourists, is uncommon in Kashmir, and the Hindu victims were reportedly specifically targeted. The incident has deeply affected the Indian public, military, and government.
Consequently, Indian military action remains a distinct possibility. The current Hindu nationalist government in India risks significant political fallout if it does not respond, especially after repeatedly signaling its intention to retaliate.
Should India take military action, a response from Pakistan is almost certain. Pakistanis are angered by the accusation of involvement in a horrific act they believe they had no part in. (While Pakistan has historically supported extremist groups in Kashmir, New Delhi has not provided proof of Pakistani involvement in the recent attack.) Pakistan would view any Indian strike as an unprovoked act of aggression. Furthermore, with its leadership facing domestic challenges, an attack would give Islamabad a reason to unify the country and garner support.
The diplomatic avenues between the two nations are also narrowing. India and Pakistan have suspended two crucial bilateral agreements: the Indus Waters Treaty, concerning water sharing, and the Simla Agreement, which promotes peaceful conflict resolution.
Fortunately, nuclear weapons continue to act as a deterrent. India and Pakistan engaged in all their major conflicts before becoming officially recognized nuclear powers in 1998. However, they have been increasingly comfortable using limited force against each other in recent years. In 2016, Indian commandos crossed into Pakistani-administered Kashmir to conduct “surgical strikes” on militant targets. In 2019, following an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir claimed by the Pakistani jihadist group Jaish-e-Mohammed that resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian security personnel, India launched airstrikes within Pakistani territory, the first such action since 1971. Pakistan responded by scrambling fighter jets, leading to aerial combat before the crisis subsided.
Given these factors, New Delhi might opt to intensify covert operations, such as targeted assassinations of militants in Pakistan, allowing it to achieve tactical goals while maintaining plausible deniability. India may also consider the more assertive measure of attacking militant groups in Pakistan to satisfy the public’s demand for a response.
New Delhi certainly does not intend to trigger a full-scale war. However, any misjudgment or error by either side could lead to unpredictable and uncontrollable consequences.
“`