Erdoğan Seeks to Extend His Rule in Turkey “`

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s leader for over two decades, has navigated numerous crises that would have toppled lesser leaders: economic downturns, a coup attempt, a refugee influx, a failed assassination attempt, corruption allegations, international criticism, and a war.

A shrewd populist, Erdoğan skillfully manages alliances and rivalries, prioritizing electoral success above all else. By weakening Turkey’s independent institutions – the military, judiciary, and media – he’s consolidated power despite fluctuating popularity.

Following setbacks in March’s local elections, Erdoğan initiated a strategic recalibration. He’s exploring reconciliation with Kurdish insurgents, engaging in dialogue with the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader, and improving relations with the U.S. for economic benefits. He’s also employing politically sensitive measures to curb inflation, confounding his opposition.

However, Turkey’s presidential term limits pose a challenge. The next election is approaching, and Erdoğan aims to retain power. He could trigger early elections or amend the constitution.

Erdoğan favors constitutional revision, a tactic he employed in 2017 to shift Turkey to a presidential system. He’ll frame this as a necessary break from the past, enabling him to lead Turkey into a new era. He also intends to modify the electoral system to ease his path to a third term, potentially removing the majority vote requirement.

Yet, securing parliamentary support is problematic. His alliance lacks the necessary votes for a constitutional referendum. To achieve this, Erdoğan is courting former allies, including those with pro-Kurdish leanings, hoping to garner enough support for the referendum.

Success is uncertain. A deal with the jailed PKK leader, while potentially easing the Kurdish conflict, could easily collapse, jeopardizing his plans.

Regardless of his chosen strategy, one truth persists: Erdoğan remains Turkey’s unparalleled political strategist.