Despite Setbacks, Dutertes Show Staying Power in Philippine Election
The 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines were anticipated to be a critical moment for the long-standing populist Duterte dynasty. The family’s leader, former President Rodrigo Duterte, aged 80, faced allegations of crimes against humanity and was arrested in March. His daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, the current Vice President, was accused of corruption and threatening President Marcos, potentially facing a Senate trial later in the year.
However, initial results indicate a resurgence for the Dutertes in the election, where millions of Filipinos voted on Monday for approximately 18,000 national and local positions.
Rodrigo and his youngest son, Sebastian, secured victories as mayor and vice mayor of Davao City. Rodrigo had previously served as mayor there for over two decades before his presidency in 2016, establishing the family’s stronghold. Due to Rodrigo’s detention in The Hague, Sebastian is expected to assume the mayoral duties.
In the Senate, key Duterte allies secured re-election, including Christopher Go, Rodrigo’s former aide and the top vote-getter, and Ronald dela Rosa, the former national police chief during Rodrigo’s controversial drug war, who ranked third overall. Both Go and Dela Rosa, who also face potential ICC arrest, strongly defended the drug war during their initial Senate terms. Additionally, Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, another Duterte supporter from the lower house, won a Senate seat, pledging to defend Sara against impeachment.
Despite hopes among some opponents that the Dutertes’ electoral defeat, combined with earlier setbacks, might end their influence, experts suggest the family has reaffirmed its significant power. According to Aries Arugay of the University of the Philippines, Rodrigo remained highly popular even after leaving office. Arugay notes that Rodrigo’s drug war, while internationally criticized, garnered considerable domestic support due to its visibility and ability to instill fear, often seen as a sign of effectiveness, similar to anti-drug campaigns in other countries.
Emily Soriano’s family initially doubted reports of Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest on March 11. Like many Filipino families, they waited for confirmation until Duterte was en route to the Netherlands to face charges related to his anti-drug campaign, which human rights groups estimate resulted in over 30,000 deaths.
Soriano’s 15-year-old son was among those killed in Caloocan, Metro Manila, in December 2016, as part of the campaign. Soriano expressed that they have been calling for an end to the killings and for holding Duterte and the police accountable since 2017, adding that their calls have not been in vain.
Rodrigo’s arrest was not guaranteed. He and his allies had resisted the ICC’s jurisdiction to avoid accountability. However, as the rivalry between the Dutertes and the Marcoses intensified—with disagreements over foreign and economic policy, accusations of destabilization attempts, and Sara’s growing interest in the 2028 presidential election—the Marcos-led government became less inclined to shield the Duterte family, a former ally in the 2022 elections.
While Soriano awaits the ICC’s decision on Rodrigo’s fate, she acknowledges the looming possibility of a Duterte return to power. Although some believed Rodrigo’s arrest might signal the dynasty’s end, the midterm election results suggest otherwise.
Sara Duterte-Carpio declared after the election that it was not the end, but a renewed beginning. The Vice President positioned her family’s and their allies’ performance as the start of an opposition movement against the Marcos government. She stated their commitment to holding the government accountable, advocating for important issues, and serving as a strong, constructive opposition.
For Marcos, the remaining years of his presidency are likely to be marked by increased division and challenges. Once enjoying high approval ratings, his popularity has declined due to his administration’s handling of domestic issues like the rising cost of living and corruption concerns, as well as the dynastic rivalry. The Dutertes and their allies have asserted that Sara’s impeachment and Rodrigo’s arrest were politically motivated, using them to solidify support, particularly in the Duterte stronghold of southern Philippines.
Sara’s approval ratings increased following her father’s arrest, while Duterte-aligned senatorial candidates like Go and Dela Rosa also saw gains in opinion polls. Arugay notes that the Dutertes’ supporters became more vocal after the arrest.
Richard Heydarian, a political analyst from the University of the Philippines, suggests that disinformation campaigns may have contributed to the boost. Reports in April indicated the emergence of a social media network praising the Dutertes and attacking the ICC and Marcoses following Rodrigo’s arrest. Cyabra, an Israel-based tech firm, stated that the disinformation campaigns influenced the pre-election narrative.
Neither the Dutertes nor the Marcoses face an easy path. While the next presidential election is in 2028, the immediate focus is the Senate, reconvening in June. Despite some Duterte victories, including Marcos Jr.’s sister Imee, who sided with the Dutertes, Marcos allies appear to have secured six of the twelve Senate seats up for election in the 24-member chamber.
Opinion polls consistently indicate that Sara is the preferred candidate to succeed Marcos in 2028, but an impeachment conviction, requiring a two-thirds majority, would permanently disqualify her from holding public office.
For individuals like Soriano, the elections are about more than political strategies and power struggles. They are about how power will be exercised. She fears that Duterte’s allies, if in office, will continue his policies.