China buys two-thirds of pledged U.S. soybeans as 2025 draws to a close

China has purchased at least 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year, sources familiar with the situation say, putting the world’s leading importer on course to fulfill a commitment it made two months prior as part of a seeming trade truce with Washington.

State-owned purchasers have kept booking U.S. cargoes through late December, the sources noted, speaking on condition of anonymity since they aren’t authorized to discuss the buys. This prolongs a purchasing surge that began in October and sustains a rate that has comforted U.S. exporters—who otherwise worried Beijing’s promise might falter amid little clarity and vague timelines.

The shipments reserved thus far are mostly for loading from December to March, the sources indicated.

Following discussions between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House stated China had vowed to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year’s end. U.S. officials later clarified the deadline is actually the end of February. Beijing hasn’t confirmed the pledge, but the Chinese government has taken steps to cut tariffs on the crop and lifted import restrictions on three U.S. exporters.

The return of Chinese buyers is good news for U.S. exporters and a reminder that purchasing patterns can shift quickly—but it’s not a complete return to normal yet. Even as Beijing takes U.S. shipments, state-owned companies have bought significant amounts of beans from Brazil and Argentina, the sources said. Commercial buyers, in particular, have remained out of the U.S. market.

Nearly 80% of Brazil’s soybeans went to China in 2025, with exports through November rising 16% from the prior year. That trade persisted in December—even during a seasonally slow sales period—and Brazil’s next harvest is projected to be a record.

“We can’t confirm from China’s perspective that anything more than 12 million tons has been promised,” said Ben Buckner, grains and dairy analyst at AgResource Co. The brokerage stated in a note this week that China was looking for shipments and might hit a “soft target” of 10 million tons in 2025, plus another 2 million tons in January.

Without a formal agreement confirmed by both parties, traders say uncertainty about future sales is adding to pressure on soybean prices. Chicago futures dipped in Wednesday’s final trading session of the year, set to fall around 7% in December—the poorest monthly showing since July 2024.

Matt Bennett, an Illinois corn and soybean farmer, said many growers have been “pleasantly surprised” by the steady stream of Chinese purchases so far—but noted frustration with soybean price trends.

“From our perspective, once you set a number like 12 million tons they’ll buy, you need more than that to get everyone excited,” Bennett—co-founder of farm advisory firm AgMarket.Net—said in a phone call.

Earlier this month, Trump announced relief for U.S. farmers—but growers are still waiting for the administration to share details on the payment amounts promised by February.