Boeing Loses China; Trump and 500 Aircraft May Help Regain Ground

(SeaPRwire) –   President Trump has stated that the main focus of the China Summit is trade, with a particular emphasis on announcing significant agreements involving major U.S. companies to boost exports to China—a market he argues has been under-purchasing American goods. He also highlighted renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at easing the longstanding tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Among the companies most likely to secure a landmark deal is Boeing. In the week leading up to Trump’s departure for China, where he was joined by a delegation of 18 high-profile CEOs, numerous media outlets reported that Boeing was in advanced negotiations with China’s three largest airlines, all operating under government oversight from Beijing.

Two key developments suggest this news may not be mere speculation but an actual near-term agreement. First, the information reportedly surfaced as a strategic leak designed to generate positive publicity for the summit. Given how unlikely it would be for Trump to highlight a potential deal if there were any doubt about its completion—especially in front of his critics—it strongly implies the transaction is already finalized. Second, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is part of the delegation accompanying Trump; notably, he is traveling aboard a custom-configured Boeing 787 provided by Qatar’s government and flying on Air Force One. Ortberg is known for his cautious approach, rarely commenting on matters that lack certainty, which further supports the idea that the reported order is genuine and imminent.

Richard Safran, an analyst at Seaport Global Securities, believes Boeing could soon celebrate a major victory. “The administration only makes such announcements when they are confident the deals are essentially done,” Safran said. “Ortberg’s presence on the trip strongly indicates that the reports are accurate. His primary purpose is likely to participate in photo opportunities with Chinese officials. Trump enjoys publicizing business successes that benefit the United States.” Safran added that securing Boeing’s former largest customer again strengthens the case for the company’s aircraft, particularly the best-selling 737 MAX series.

In fact, the rumored order could involve approximately 500 or more aircraft, predominantly the 737 MAX. To put this into perspective, Boeing currently expects to deliver just 52 units of the 737 family by the end of 2025, each priced around $100 million before substantial discounts. More importantly, such a deal would represent a pivotal turnaround in Boeing’s strained relationship with China and mark the resumption of substantial commercial activity after years of near-freeze. In March 2019, China became the first country to ground the 737 MAX following fatal crashes involving Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air—acting ahead of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ban lasted four years, longer than any other nation’s, and significantly disrupted Boeing’s operations. Although deliveries resumed in January 2024, they have since faced repeated delays due to ongoing regulatory reviews by China’s aviation authority, the CAAC. Since the grounding began seven years ago, Boeing has delivered just over 100 planes to China—far short of the roughly 100 MAX jets imported in 2018 alone. A signing during the summit would mark Boeing’s first major Chinese order since 2017.

China represents a critical future market for Boeing and will serve as a decisive battleground against Airbus

Both Boeing and Airbus project that China will become the world’s largest aircraft market by 2043. Its commercial fleet is expected to nearly double to about 10,000 planes by then—almost matching the current size of the U.S. commercial fleet. In recent years, it appeared Airbus might capture a larger share of these anticipated orders compared to Boeing. During the period when Boeing was sidelined due to CAAC bans and regulatory delays, Airbus continued securing orders and making deliveries. The European manufacturer even operates a production facility in Tianjin that builds the A320, the direct competitor to the MAX. A massive order, such as the rumored 500 planes, would signal that China still views the MAX as a top-tier choice for the future and has not shifted decisively toward Airbus. “It’s encouraging that despite Airbus having manufacturing operations in China, the country continues to favor Boeing,” said Safran.

A key driver behind Boeing’s resurgence under CEO Kelly Ortberg has been gaining approval from the FAA to increase 737 MAX production. Ortberg has publicly set a goal of reaching a monthly output of 52 MAX jets by year-end, with no immediate new orders from China included in those projections. However, Safran estimates that the expected summit deal could result in an additional five MAX jets per month—representing a meaningful boost to 737 family revenue. The timing of these revenues remains uncertain. Boeing is already experiencing delays in both MAX and 787 deliveries due to wiring issues and shortages of premium cabin seats. Additionally, the company maintains a staggering backlog of nearly 600 billion dollars for 6,100 planes, equivalent to six to seven years of production capacity. According to Safran, while Boeing may ship a few aircraft to China in the short term, major deliveries from the new summit order are unlikely to begin for another one to two years. The primary bottleneck lies with suppliers, particularly for components like engines and landing gear, which can take up to 18 months to source and integrate.

Nevertheless, Boeing has transitioned from stagnation to potentially overtaking its European rival in what is projected to be the fastest-growing aviation market globally. The high likelihood of a high-profile signing in Beijing would mark a historic milestone in Boeing’s remarkable comeback.