Analyst: Trading Desks Will Be So Quiet for Nvidia Earnings ‘You Could Hear a Pin Drop’

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S&P 500 futures rose 0.14% this morning, following a 0.77% gain for the index yesterday, indicating traders viewed Monday’s 1% drop as an overreaction.

Market attention is now squarely on Nvidia’s Q4 2025 earnings call scheduled for tonight. As the world’s most valuable company with a $4.7 trillion market cap, Nvidia produces the advanced chips powering the AI revolution, generates more AI-related revenue than any competitor, and is a major investor in the AI ecosystem. Consequently, its financial results are poised to significantly influence market direction after today’s close.

“The entire global market will be carefully watching these results and commentary, and we will … be able to hear a pin drop on Street trading desks,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives informed clients. “We fully expect the leading AI chip supplier to comfortably exceed estimates and issue guidance above Street forecasts, given continued positive data points through the fourth quarter and an apparently healthy spending outlook through 2026.”

Analysts at ING struck a more cautious tone. “Markets look tentative ahead of today’s high-stakes earnings. With lingering investor unease around AI stocks, Nvidia will likely need to surpass consensus estimates and provide strong guidance to offer meaningful reassurance. Currently, the downside risks to global risk sentiment from a miss seem greater than the upside from a beat,” ING’s Francesco Pesole wrote in a client note.

Technology stocks continue to exhibit fragility. The Nasdaq Composite has declined 1.63% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500’s 0.65% gain.

Bespoke Investment Group released a chart detailing a new ‘AI Doom’ basket comprising 55 large-cap stocks recently battered by AI-related news. The firm stated this basket has now fallen to levels last seen in April during the S&P 500’s ‘tariff tantrum’ lows last year.

Xiao Lei, head of research and chief economist at Hong Kong’s Kasikornbank, offered a vivid metaphor for this market sensitivity, describing U.S. investors’ readiness to sell off on AI fears:

“If you see a strong man suddenly break down in tears in a restaurant because there’s no chilli sauce on the table, you immediately understand that he must have been holding back those tears for a long time.”

On a more analytical note, Goldman Sachs highlighted that capital expenditures (capex) by AI hyperscalers are now projected to reach $667 billion in 2026, a 62% increase from the prior year. This level surpasses a threshold set during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

“Hyperscaler capex is now on pace to exceed 90% of cash flows this year, above the share during the Dot Com Boom,” Goldman’s Ryan Hammond and colleagues advised clients.

“A deceleration in the quarterly growth rate is likely in late 2026. The revenue growth and valuations of some AI infrastructure stocks appear vulnerable to a slowdown in capex growth. Even where rallies have been driven entirely by earnings, the recent disconnect between Nvidia’s stock price and its earnings illustrates the difficulty of sustaining robust returns amid concerns about ‘over-earning.'”

Here’s a snapshot of the markets this morning prior to the opening bell in New York:

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.14% this morning. The index closed up 0.77% in its last session.
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.55% in early trading.
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.95% in early trading.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.2%.
  • China’s CSI 300 is up 0.6%.
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 1.91%.
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.23%.
  • Bitcoin rose to $65.4K.