Why Tesla’s 1.5% Stock Jump Had Nothing At All To Do With EVs

(SeaPRwire) –   By: Christian Pierce

Tesla’s stock moved up 1.5% this Monday. The jump didn’t come from any EV news. It didn’t even come from Tesla itself. Investors now value Tesla for something far beyond car sales. April new U.S. EV sales for Tesla dropped 23% year over year. No one on Wall Street even batted an eye. This split between core business and market valuation is the biggest tension in tech investing today.

The gain was triggered by the new U.S.-Iran MOU announced by President Trump. The deal ends a three-month conflict and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures gained 1.4% on the news. Dow Jones futures rose 1% across the board. Crude oil dropped 5% to $83 per barrel, down from April highs over $115. Tesla’s latest quarter beat EPS estimates at $0.41 versus the $0.39 consensus. Revenue hit $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year over year, but slightly missed the $22.96 billion forecast. Tesla halted production of Model S, X and Y at Fremont to retool for humanoid robot mass production. Of 44 analysts covering TSLA, 22 rate it Buy, 17 Hold, 5 Sell. The consensus average price target sits at $404.37. Insiders sold a combined $21.6 million worth of shares in the last 90 days.

The old link between lower oil prices and weaker EV demand no longer applies to Tesla. Investors aren’t buying Tesla for its current car sales. They are buying into its AI, robotaxi and humanoid robot narrative. Tesla hasn’t grown annual EPS since 2022. Analysts forecast current year EPS at $1.19, hitting $7 by 2029. The removal of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit last September is the real drag on sales. Tesla doesn’t meaningfully benefit from the 17% year over year boom in used EV sales. The market has already fully re-rated Tesla as an AI growth story. It will stay that way until the narrative breaks.

Author bio: Christian Pierce, chief financial columnist and markets commentator covering global tech stocks and institutional trading trends.