The Upcoming Week: Inflation Data and Oracle Earnings Scheduled Amid Oil Prices Reaching Multiyear Highs

Posted on by

TLDR

  • Oil prices jumped more than 36% in a week, topping $91, following Iran war-related disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
  • The S&P 500 is now 1.5% lower year-to-date, while the Nasdaq has declined 3.7% since January
  • The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, far below projections of a 55,000 gain
  • Oracle will release earnings on Tuesday; Adobe and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are also reporting results this week
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision

U.S. markets ended Friday sharply lower, wrapping up one of 2026’s worst weeks. The S&P 500 slid 1.3% on Friday alone, bringing its year-to-date loss to 1.5%. The Nasdaq fell 1.6% Friday and is now 3.7% below its January 1 level. The Dow lost roughly 450 points on the day.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The ongoing war in Iran, which has blocked oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, is the main cause of most market turmoil. Under normal conditions, the Strait carries about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

With that transit now stopped, approximately 16 million barrels are stuck with no destination, per Vortexa data. Storage facilities are full. Producers are scaling back. Prices have jumped more than 36% in a week, surpassing $91 per barrel — the largest weekly increase since at least 1985.

Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, cautioned that “a few weeks of Hormuz closure will trigger a domino effect of events that could drive crude to $150 or more.” Some analysts are now publicly mentioning that level as a realistic scenario.

Inflation and the Fed

The oil price surge is occurring at the worst possible moment for the Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Friday that “the oil price shock, depending on its duration, is a genuine concern.”

Goldman Sachs projects that if oil remains high for several months, year-over-year headline inflation could rise back toward 3%. The Fed’s target is 2%.

Ten-year Treasury yields have risen back above 4.14%. Rate cut expectations have diminished as traders consider the risk that higher crude prices could hinder inflation progress. Fed officials like Neel Kashkari and John Williams stated that it’s too soon to gauge the full impact.

Wednesday’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Friday’s January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will provide the most clear insight into prices ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

Source: Forex Factory

Jobs Miss Adds to Concern

The February jobs report added further strain. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs, falling short of forecasts for a 55,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in January.

Some economists highlighted one-time factors, such as a Kaiser Permanente labor strike that subtracted 37,000 jobs from the tally. BNP Paribas economist Andrew Husby described the result as due to “special factors.”

Others disagreed. Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management noted “a split market — slower macro growth alongside accelerating technological change.” Jack Dorsey’s Block laid off 4,000 workers in February, with its CFO linking the cuts directly to artificial intelligence.

reports earnings on Tuesday. Its stock has fallen more than 50% since September highs. The company recently unveiled plans to raise $50 billion for AI data center building. Adobe and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are also reporting this week, along with Dollar General, Li Auto, and Nio.