Tesla Stock Gains Momentum on FSD China Expansion and Optimus Robot Production

TLDR

• Tesla stock is up ~30% over the past 30 days but still down 4% year-to-date
• CEO Elon Musk is traveling to China, with hopes of securing FSD approval for the Chinese market
• Tesla reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions in Q1 2026, up from 850,000 a year ago
• Production of the Model S and X has stopped to make way for Optimus humanoid robot manufacturing
• McKinsey projects robotaxi services will roll out at large scale globally by 2030

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(SeaPRwire) –   Tesla stock ($TSLA) is trading around $448, up roughly 30% over the past 30 days, though it remains down about 4% for the year.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The stock rose early Wednesday before slipping back, trading at $432.08, down 0.3%, as CEO Elon Musk boarded Air Force One en route to China alongside a group of U.S. business leaders including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg.

The trip is high-stakes. Tesla is seeking approval to sell its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver-assistance product in China, a market that could significantly expand its subscriber base.

In the U.S., FSD costs $99 per month. Tesla ended Q1 2026 with 1.3 million FSD subscribers, up from around 850,000 a year earlier.

China approval would benefit a company that has framed its future around AI-driven products — FSD, robotaxis, and humanoid robots.

Tuesday’s session saw the stock fall 2.6%, snapping a four-day winning streak that had added more than 14% to the price. That winning run was partly driven by optimism surrounding the China FSD deal.

Tesla’s traditional auto business has been under pressure. The company is facing declining vehicle sales, a product lineup that has not changed much, and growing competition globally.

Rather than aggressively refreshing its vehicle range, Musk has been directing resources toward longer-term bets.

Optimus Takes Center Stage

Earlier this month, Tesla halted production of the Model S and Model X. That capacity is now being converted into a production line for its Optimus humanoid robot.

Investors are closely watching for an update on Optimus version three, which could be demonstrated this summer.

Tesla has been cautious about revealing too much. On the Q1 earnings call, Musk stated competitors do “frame-by-frame analysis” of anything Tesla releases and copy it as quickly as possible.

Robotaxi Outlook

Beyond robots, the robotaxi opportunity is a major component of the Tesla bull case.

McKinsey & Co. projects that robotaxis will roll out at large scale globally around 2030. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood estimates the total addressable market at $5 trillion to $10 trillion.

Tesla has already started producing its Cybercab model, a vehicle built specifically for the robotaxi market. Pilot services are active in several metro areas.

Tesla’s existing manufacturing scale, which appears to be a weakness given the auto sales slowdown, could become an advantage as robotaxi demand grows.

Tesla reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions at the end of Q1 2026, with the potential for that number to increase significantly if China gives the green light.