SpaceX’s Stock Plunges Below IPO Price—Here’s Why the Second Lockup Hit Harder Than the First

(SeaPRwire) –

By: Christian Pierce

SpaceX’s stock slipped below its $135 IPO price Thursday, a 4.05% drop. The irony is hard to miss. The first lockup expiry in August released 911.5 million shares—double the float—and the stock rose 6%. The second, smaller release (319 million shares) did the opposite. The difference lies in demand. The market had already absorbed a huge supply. Buyers weren’t ready to take on more at current prices. Dilution from the Cursor acquisition only made things worse.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Let’s lay out the numbers. The second lockup shares make up 7% of total outstanding stock. It ended a six-day run above the IPO price and extended a three-day losing streak. The Cursor deal closed on August14, adding 389 million Class A shares. Q2 capex hit $18.4 billion, spooking investors. A late June $25 billion bond offering raised cash burn concerns, leading to a 16% drop. SpaceX’s IPO on June12 was the largest in U.S. history. The stock hit $225.64 in its first week, briefly surpassing Microsoft and Amazon’s market cap. It later fell to $108.27, a post-IPO low. Future lockups loom: 1.3 billion shares in November2026, full 180-day lockup in December2026, and Musk’s 6.42 billion shares in June2027.

Analysts still hold a moderate buy rating. The average target is $232.35—73% upside from current levels. But the commercial loop is fragile. Supply is outpacing demand. SpaceX’s spending spree and acquisitions are diluting existing shares. Until the company can turn its investments into tangible growth, the stock will struggle. Investors should prepare for more swings as each lockup expiry approaches.

Author bio: Christian Pierce, chief financial columnist and markets commentator specializing in tech stock volatility and corporate finance trends.