Rigetti’s Q2 Earnings: Insiders Dump $17.5M, But Wall Street Bets 32% Upside—Here’s My Take

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(SeaPRwire) –   By: Lucas Caldwell

Rigetti’s Q2 2026 earnings are here, and the split between insiders and Wall Street is jarring. Insiders sold $17.5M worth of stock in three months—CTO David Rivas dumped 60.5% of his shares. But analysts still call it a Moderate Buy with 32% upside. This isn’t just numbers; it’s a clash between those building the tech and those trading it.

Wall Street expects Rigetti to report an adjusted loss of $0.05 per share and $5.09M in revenue Thursday after close. The stock is down 24.33% year-to-date but up 7.15% over 12 months. Beta sits at 1.95—so this isn’t for risk-averse investors. Earlier this week, it hit $17.72 intraday before pulling back to $17.45.

Post-earnings history isn’t kind. Rigetti’s stock fell after three of its last four reports. The only win was a 6.42% gain after Q2 2025. Trading volume ahead of this report is light: 9.62M shares vs the three-month average of 25.88M. Investors are sitting tight, waiting for the numbers to land.

Analysts aren’t backing down. The consensus is Moderate Buy, with six Buy ratings and three Holds. The average price target is $30.71—32% above current levels. Benchmark started coverage with a Buy and $25 target. Needham has $31, and Mizuho kept Outperform even as it cut to $27.

Institutional investors are doubling down. Vanguard increased its position by 12.2% in Q2. State Street added 12% to its stake. These are big names in passive investing—their moves signal long-term confidence. But insiders are selling. Rivas’s $12.7M sale is hard to ignore. It makes you wonder: do they see something analysts don’t?

Rigetti’s post-earnings move will be all or nothing—either a 30% jump on beating estimates or a 20% drop if it misses.

Author bio: Lucas Caldwell, tech opinion leader with millions of followers on X/Twitter, focusing on emerging tech and market trends.