Prime Day: Will It Be the Catalyst to Revive Amazon’s Stock Amid AWS Dominance?

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(SeaPRwire) –   By: Christian Pierce

Amazon Prime Day is set to begin tomorrow, June 23, and it’s a moment that Wall Street is closely monitoring. This four-day event, spanning 27 countries and over 35 product categories, isn’t just about moving goods. It’s a key moment to gauge Amazon’s core e-commerce health, attract new Prime members, and drive traffic through advertising, subscriptions, and third-party marketplace sales. Bank of America analyst Justin Post has high expectations. He projects Amazon will generate $21.6 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) during the event, a 5% increase from last year. Post sees first-party GMV hitting $11.6 billion and third-party GMV reaching $10 billion. He also forecasts Prime Day could add $12.4 billion in incremental GMV and $8.5 billion in incremental revenue to Q2 results.

Post maintained his Buy rating and kept his price target at $310, implying roughly 26.9% upside from the current stock price of around $244.65. A tool he’s closely watching is Alexa for Shopping, the AI-powered feature that could help customers track prices, find deals, and automate purchases. Over the long term, Post estimates it could add more than $200 billion in sales and around $20 billion in retail profit by 2035.

While Prime Day grabs the headlines, AWS remains Amazon’s most crucial profit driver. In Q1 2026, AWS revenue grew 28%, its fastest pace in nearly four years, and accounted for 59% of Amazon’s total operating profit. CEO Andy Jassy has labeled AWS as the start of a multiyear growth cycle. Amazon is investing heavily, spending $200 billion on data center build-outs this year, more than any other AI hyperscaler. Jassy notes client demand is already lined up for the new computing capacity.

AMZN stock is currently trading around $244.65, down roughly 10% from its recent all-time high. Year-to-date, the stock is up approximately 7%, but it’s trailing the broader S&P 500. On a price-to-operating cash flow basis, Amazon trades at around 17 times, which is comparable to Microsoft and cheaper than Apple at 32 times or Alphabet at 26 times. The TipRanks consensus sits at Strong Buy, based on 45 Buy ratings and one Hold. The average analyst price target is $319.14, suggesting about 30.6% upside from current levels.

With Prime Day underway and Q2 results on the horizon, near-term attention will be on sales performance and what it signals about consumer demand in the second half of 2026. AWS’s continued growth provides a stable profit base, but Prime Day’s outcomes will be critical for Amazon’s stock trajectory. The interplay between Prime Day’s e-commerce impact and AWS’s cloud dominance will shape Amazon’s path forward. Author bio: Christian Pierce, a chief financial columnist and markets commentator with extensive experience analyzing tech and retail dynamics, bringing a sharp perspective to Amazon’s complex market position.