Micron at $1,029: Wall Street Screams Buy While the CEO Quietly Walks Out the Side Door

Posted on by

(SeaPRwire) –   By: Lucas Caldwell

Everyone posting “buy the dip” on Micron right now is ignoring the single loudest signal in the tape: the people running the company are selling it. MU trades near $1,029, down 18% from its June 25 record close of $1,255. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra unloaded $38.8 million of stock on August 21 at an average of $968.90, cutting his stake by 13%. Total insider sales hit $90.9 million over three months. Insiders now own 0.24% of the company. Meanwhile retail traders on my timeline are calling this the entry of the decade. Somebody is wrong here, and my money says it is not the CEO.

The bull numbers are real, and they are wild. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue exploded 379% to $54.23 billion, smashing the $51.33 billion forecast. EPS printed $33.42 against a $31.77 consensus. Net margin sat at 63.8%. Guidance for fiscal Q1 2027 calls for EPS between $37.15 and $39.15. More than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are reportedly committed. HBM needs three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM, which has squeezed DRAM supply across PCs, phones, and servers and pushed prices upward. Analysts model 55% revenue and 67% EPS growth from fiscal 2026 to 2028.

The valuation pitch sounds absurd on paper. Roughly six times expected earnings for this year. Wall Street carries one Strong Buy, 41 Buys, four Holds. Consensus target: $1,407.88. Rosenblatt went to $1,900. Zacks upgraded to Strong Buy. Market cap hovers near $1.2 trillion, with the stock miles above its 50-day at $980.05 and 200-day at $841.86. On a spreadsheet, this is the cheapest AI story alive. Spreadsheets, of course, are exactly where memory stocks go to lie to you.

Now the part the bulls skip. Memory is a serial killer of portfolios. Micron dropped 73% from 2014 to 2016, 55% in 2018, 43% in 2020, 51% in 2021, 36% in 2024. Shortages become gluts. They always do. Every cycle ends with makers overbuilding capacity into a demand wall. The options market already smells it. Put volume in the SMH ETF far exceeded call volume, signaling heavy hedging across chips. Add softer-than-expected OpenAI revenue data, slower profit growth at Samsung, and a Taiwan union authorizing strike action over bonuses. The anxiety is stacking.

The chart confirms the hesitation. MU has churned sideways since the June peak, bounced off $740 in late July, rode a rising trendline to about $1,100 in September, then rolled over. Price closed below the $1,035 level, flipping it to resistance. The trendline sits near $1,016. Next real support is $900. RSI reads 50.20, cooled from the 60s in early October. MACD prints 22.36 versus a 28.68 signal line, histogram at negative 6.32. Bearish crossover, fading momentum, volume running light at 19.9 million versus a 32.5 million average.

If $1,016 cracks, $900 comes fast, and the “cheapest AI stock” narrative gets stress-tested against the oldest lesson in semis: insiders sell tops, not bottoms.

Author bio: Lucas Caldwell, a tech opinion leader with millions of followers on X/Twitter, known for contrarian semiconductor calls and stripped-down tape analysis.