JPMorgan Cautions That the Stablecoin Surge Could Be Misleading

TLDR

• The annual stablecoin transaction volume is estimated at $17.2 trillion for 2026
• Increased “velocity” allows existing stablecoins to facilitate more transactions without an increase in supply
• Over the past year, the stablecoin market capitalization has risen by almost $100 billion, exceeding $300 billion when yield-bearing stablecoins are counted
• JPMorgan forecasts the stablecoin market cap will hit just $500–$600 billion by 2028, far short of trillions
• The fastest-growing use case is consumer-to-business and merchant payments, with Asia at the forefront of adoption

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(SeaPRwire) –   Stablecoins are seeing unprecedented usage, yet this does not necessarily translate to a proportional increase in their total circulating value, according to JPMorgan analysts.

In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank’s analysts identified rising stablecoin velocity as the critical metric. Velocity refers to the frequency with which a single stablecoin is transferred within a given timeframe.

High velocity enables a relatively small stablecoin supply to support a significantly larger volume of transactions. Consequently, even a substantial rise in stablecoin payment activity does not require an equivalent expansion in overall market capitalization.

“As payment systems built on stablecoins gain broader adoption, their efficiency and velocity increase,” the analysts stated. “This higher velocity will probably restrain the future growth of the stablecoin ecosystem.”

Based on year-to-date 2026 figures, the annual onchain transaction volume for stablecoins is currently approximately $17.2 trillion. This substantial figure indicates genuine growth in daily stablecoin utilization.

The market capitalization for stablecoins has increased by nearly $100 billion in the last year. Including yield-bearing variants, the total surpasses $300 billion.

This growth rate has exceeded that of the wider cryptocurrency market, which analysts interpret as a sign that stablecoins are being employed for purposes beyond mere crypto trading or collateral.

Payments Driving the Growth

JPMorgan notes that consumer-to-business and merchant payments are expanding more rapidly than peer-to-peer transfers, referencing data from venture firm a16z crypto.

While consumer-to-consumer payments still constitute the majority of stablecoin activity, the trend toward merchant payments signals stablecoins’ deeper integration into routine commercial transactions.

The analysts emphasized that Asia continues to be the dominant region for stablecoin use.

JPMorgan also highlighted the U.S. GENIUS Act as a contributor to increased transaction volume, as the law established a more defined regulatory structure for stablecoins.

JPMorgan’s Long-Running Cautious View

This report continues JPMorgan’s history of tempering overly optimistic stablecoin forecasts. In December 2024, the analysts expressed doubt that the market cap would achieve trillion-dollar scale.

They estimated the market would grow to roughly $500 to $600 billion by 2028. Previously, in May 2024, they had labeled others’ trillion-dollar projections as “far too optimistic.”

The new analysis maintains this prudent stance. While robust growth in usage is evident, the dynamics of velocity imply that the market capitalization will likely rise at a slower rate than transaction volumes would indicate.

According to the latest data referenced by JPMorgan, Asia persists as the global leader in stablecoin activity, and adoption for merchant payments is continuing to widen.