Is Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock a Buy Before Monday’s Earnings Release?

TLDR

• Rigetti Computing will report its Q1 2026 results on May 11, after the market closes.
• Options traders anticipate a 17.56% price movement in either direction following the earnings announcement.
• Wall Street forecasts a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $4.09 million.
• RGTI has risen 32% over the past month but is down 17% year-to-date.
• Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy consensus rating with an average price target of $30.67.

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(SeaPRwire) –   Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 financial results on May 11, after market close. The stock is currently trading at approximately $18.34, and options activity suggests significant volatility ahead.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTI

The options market implies a potential move of 17.56% in either direction around the earnings announcement. This exceeds more than double RGTI’s average post-earnings swing of 7.46% over the past four quarters.

This year has been volatile for RGTI. While the stock has gained over 32% in the last month, it remains down about 17% year-to-date as investors remain cautious toward riskier growth-oriented stocks.

Wall Street expects Rigetti to report a loss of $0.04 per share for Q1, representing improvement from the $0.08 loss reported in the same period last year. Revenue is projected at $4.09 million, though the Zacks consensus estimate stands slightly lower at $3.25 million.

In its most recent quarter, Rigetti delivered an earnings surprise of 40%. The company has beaten estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 9.17%.

Key Areas to Watch

Several factors will be closely monitored when the company reports on May 11.

First, investors will focus on hardware revenue, particularly progress related to Rigetti’s $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC for a 108-qubit system, as well as $5.7 million in orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems expected to ship during the first half of 2026.

The launch of Rigetti’s 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system is also drawing attention. It became available on Rigetti’s cloud platform and Amazon Braket last month—marking it as the first 100+ qubit superconducting quantum system on AWS.

Advancements in quantum fidelity will also be under scrutiny. Recently, Rigetti achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at a 28-nanosecond gate speed using its Adiabatic CZ gate scheme. The company aims to reach 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity later this year, with long-term plans targeting systems with over 1,000 qubits.

Cash burn remains a key concern for pre-revenue quantum computing firms. However, Rigetti maintains approximately $590 million in cash and carries no debt, providing ample runway for continued investment in research and development and system expansion.

Valuation and Analyst View

RGTI trades at a price-to-book ratio of 12.22, higher than peer companies IonQ (5.05) and D-Wave Quantum (10.34). This premium valuation reflects elevated growth expectations embedded in the stock.

Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy consensus on RGTI, based on eight Buy ratings and three Hold recommendations. The average price target of $30.67 suggests potential upside of around 67% from current levels.

Rigetti carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) heading into the earnings print, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, meaning the model does not indicate a strong likelihood of a beat this quarter.

Peer quantum computing companies IonQ and D-Wave Quantum are also expected to report results in the coming weeks.

The recent technical achievement—99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds—was highlighted by management as a pivotal milestone in its roadmap toward larger-scale commercial quantum systems.