COIN’s Counterintuitive 3% Jump After Earnings Miss: The Hidden Growth Story Wall Street Is Finally Pricing In

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By: Christian Pierce

For the last three quarters, Coinbase has missed both top and bottom line analyst estimates. Investors were bracing for another steep selloff when Q2 earnings dropped last week. The 7% after-hours dip seemed to confirm bearish fears, until share prices reversed course hours later. COIN traded up 3.59% to $163 as of press time, leaving most retail traders confused by the counterintuitive move. Institutional buyers aren’t acting on headline earnings alone, though. They’re looking past the immediate revenue shortfall to underlying business shifts that have flown under the radar for two years.

Let’s lay out the exact Q2 performance numbers first, no spin. Coinbase reported Q2 revenue of $1.22 billion, 7% below the consensus analyst estimate of $1.29 billion. That figure also marks a drop from $1.5 billion in revenue for the same quarter last year. Transaction revenue fell 21% to $599.2 million, missing estimates of $635.1 million. Subscription and services revenue hit $555.1 million, also below the market consensus of $594.4 million. The company posted a net loss of $359.5 million for the quarter, but adjusted EBITDA came in at $207.8 million, marking its 14th straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
COIN stock card
Source: Knockoutstocks
The core growth metrics that sparked the rally are hard to ignore. Prediction market revenue and contracts rose 106% quarter over quarter, crossing $100 million in annualized revenue during Q2. New binaries products launched late in the quarter drove activity sharply higher, with daily traders tripling and daily revenue quadrupling from May levels. Coinbase also hit a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume, its third consecutive quarter of market share gains even as industry-wide trading activity softened. Average USDC held on Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion, representing more than 30% of all circulating USDC. 88% of Coinbase’s net revenue now comes from sources outside Bitcoin spot trading, with subscription and services revenue accounting for nearly half of total net revenue.
COIN price levels chart
Source: X
COIN currently trades above the Bollinger Band midpoint, with immediate support near $154.46. A close below that level would expose a wider demand zone between $146 and $155, with further selling pushing it toward the June low near $140. The first resistance zone sits between $174 and $181, with a daily close above that range opening a path to $209 to $222.

Brian Armstrong’s claim that Coinbase is no longer just a bet on Bitcoin price is not empty PR fluff. The company is steadily capturing market share from smaller crypto exchanges collapsing under global regulatory pressure. Its 30% share of circulating USDC gives it a stable, recurring revenue stream completely untethered to volatile crypto price swings. Prediction markets are still a small slice of total revenue right now, but their 106% quarterly growth rate puts them on track to hit $1 billion in annual revenue by 2026 if momentum holds. COIN will stay range bound between $154 and $168 for the next 30 days, but if Q3 prediction market growth stays above 80%, the stock will break through the $181 resistance level before the end of 2024.

Author bio: Christian Pierce, chief financial columnist and markets commentator with 12 years covering public tech equities and crypto markets.