Bitcoin Traders Want To Declare The Bear Market Dead. The $80K–$87K Range Is Not Letting Them.

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(SeaPRwire) –   By: Oliver Hawthorne

Bitcoin is being sold a comfortable story right now. Two popular analysts have publicly declared that the bear market could be over. That makes a great headline. It is a much harder trade when it meets the chart data. BTC trades near $83,893. It remains trapped between $80,314 and $87,397. A range is not a breakout. A range is not a new bull market. The RSI reads 55.13, mildly bullish. The MACD tells a different story: bearish in the short term. The trendline from the August low is intact, but buyers had to rescue it after a careless dip. That is not the behavior of a coin that has escaped its bear phase. That is the behavior of a coin waiting for permission. Permission will come from macro data, not from Twitter charts. The anxiety underneath is simple. Nobody wants to miss the recovery, and nobody wants to buy a fake breakout.

Now let’s walk through the evidence without romance. The Oct. 12 Coinbase daily chart showed an open near $83,678, a high around $84,200, a low near $83,354, and a recovery around $83,893. The lower end of the range at $80,314 is the key support. A loss of that opens the door to the high-$70,000s. The upper end at $87,397 is a high-liquidity zone. A genuine close above it would make a new breakout attempt credible. The nearest support sits between $83,000 and $83,500, close to the recovered trendline. The technical internals are not as clean as the narrative. The RSI at 55.13 is mildly positive. The MACD line sits below its signal line, and the histogram is negative. Momentum has not yet upgraded. The ETF flow picture is also messy. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $118.8 million on Oct. 6, then lost $484.9 million on Oct. 7. That came after an $89.8 million outflow on Oct. 5. The two earlier days were better. Oct. 2 brought $189.9 million, and Oct. 1 brought $102.7 million. BlackRock’s IBIT remains the cumulative leader, and total net inflows across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stand near $57.4 billion. That large pool of assets has turned into a mechanical flow channel. When money leaves these funds, BTC has to absorb the sell pressure.

The bullish long-term case does have a real anchor. Coin Bureau highlighted Glassnode data showing BTC’s MVRV momentum has turned positive, the same recovery signal seen in 2019 and 2023. The MVRV ratio stands at 1.54, above its annual average of 1.44. Ash Crypto added on Oct. 12 that Bitcoin just confirmed a fourth consecutive weekly close above the 50-week moving average. Historically, that has meant the bottom is in and a new bull market has started. Those are meaningful signals, but they are measured on weekly cycles, not on daily traction. Meanwhile, the macro calendar is the real controlling variable. U.S. CPI lands Wednesday, with PPI and retail sales due Thursday. Reuters reported that oil prices eased after President Donald Trump claimed an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. That may cool inflation pressure at the margin. But traders are not relaxed. Inflation expectations are elevated, and Treasury yields are high. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading would likely strengthen the dollar and push yields higher. That is exactly the kind of setup that triggers ETF outflows.

Here is where narrative meets financial machinery. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the main demand channel. With total net inflows near $57.4 billion, those funds are the bridge between macro capital and BTC price. That creates a feedback loop. Low yields and soft inflation bring inflows. Inflows push price up. Strong price brings attention. Attention brings more inflows. The reverse loop is equally dangerous. High yields push money out. Outflows push price down. A rangebound asset with outflows feels like a falling knife. Wednesday’s CPI report is the switch. A hot number likely drags BTC toward $80,314. A cool number makes $87,397 the live target. Let me be blunt about the commercial logic. ETF issuers earn fees on managed assets. They have every incentive to keep a bullish narrative alive during rangebound markets. That is not a conspiracy. That is the product structure. It means phrases like “bear market over” can be rational for issuers to repeat and premature for traders to trust. The market only pays out when the range breaks. The practical route is simple: wait for the data. If CPI is cool and BTC closes above $87,397, the recovery narrative deserves its validation. If $80,314 fails, the bear-market-over talk needs to be parked. The next stop would be the high-$70,000s. Until that range resolves, calling the bear market over is a preference, not a conclusion.

Author bio: Oliver Hawthorne, Principal Correspondent at a leading international technology review, covering digital asset market structure, institutional flows, and crypto-native derivatives.