Why CFOs Should Focus on Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO and Its Alleged $1.5 Trillion Market Value

Greetings. It’s reported that Elon Musk is preparing a summer IPO for the newly expanded SpaceX, which could redefine the upper limit of what constitutes ‘large’ in public markets—and CFOs should take note.

Colleague Shawn Tully’s article states, ‘For SpaceX to justify a $1.5 trillion market cap post-IPO, it would need to earn more than Berkshire Hathaway. Here’s why that’s improbable.’ Tully notes that with a targeted primary raise of $50 billion and a valuation of $1.5 trillion, the deal would only trail Saudi Aramco in market cap and surpass Alibaba’s debut, but it’s being pitched based on fragmented financials and mostly unconsolidated disclosures. SpaceX has indicated around $15 billion in revenue and approximately $8 billion in EBITDA last year, yet media reports show a $2.4 billion loss in the first nine months of 2025, with depreciation and interest still to be factored in, implying little to no GAAP profit at the IPO.

Tully leads readers through the unsettling implication: At $1.5 trillion, investors are purchasing not earnings, but an extremely capital-intensive growth narrative where the ultimate market is still being developed.

For CFOs, this piece serves as a case study on how much you can stretch valuation, earnings ‘bogies,’ and capital-intensity assumptions before even bullish investors set a boundary. It also raises a question: If public investors accept Musk’s terms, will it reshape valuation norms and capital-raising aspirations in space, AI, and infrastructure—compelling CFOs of scaled unicorns and large-cap companies to reevaluate their own IPO or spin-off calculations?

Tully’s piece delves into the figures underlying the $1.5 trillion target. You can read the article here.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@.com