War, fuel price spikes and unpaid TSA staff create a perfect storm of travel disruption that feels like the pandemic all over again

(SeaPRwire) –   A regional conflict, marked by missiles and drones in the skies, has disrupted Middle Eastern airspace. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to surge. A partial government shutdown has left 50,000 TSA agents working without pay for over a month. These simultaneous events are compelling travelers to reconsider their plans, creating a situation reminiscent of the pandemic era a few years ago.

“It’s a crazy situation,” stated Eric Napoli, Chief Legal Officer at AirHelp, the world’s largest flight compensation platform. “Different situations in different places in the world are all convening at once.”

Napoli noted that more travelers have recently sought AirHelp’s assistance to recover funds lost due to flight disruptions. He explained that the combination of a war grounding flights and increasing fuel costs, coupled with ongoing issues in Mexico, government employees taking sick leave after a month or more of unpaid work, and adverse weather conditions, has created an unprecedented “perfect storm” since the global standstill caused by COVID-19. Above all, Napoli emphasized, the prevailing question, much like during the pandemic, is: when will it end?

“The sensation of the pandemic is similar in the sense that we’re like, okay, we don’t know what just happened,” Napoli told . “What’s the future going to be? Is this something that’s going to last two weeks, three weeks, a year? Is everything going to change? This is what we don’t know.”

Iran Conflict Leads to Airspace Closures and Rising Fuel Costs

The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has significantly undermined the Gulf’s status as a vital global aviation hub. Airlines have either canceled or rerouted flights, leaving passengers with connections through Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Doha in an uncertain situation.

“Economies like Qatar or the Emirates that have really based themselves on being the connecting hub between Europe, the US, and Asia. All that stuff has been frozen,” Napoli said. “Anybody traveling to Asia from the U.S. or Europe suddenly sees major flight disruption. That’s been incredibly frustrating for passengers.”​

For those stranded in the Gulf, options are grim. Napoli described instances of travelers desperately seeking alternatives, such as driving for hours to reach operational airports in neighboring countries. “People are all on wait lists for flights, and it’s very touch-and-go,” he said. “From one day to the next, airspace might close.”​

Compounding the issue is a dramatic rise in fuel expenses. Brent crude has climbed over 50% in the last month and is now priced at $115 per barrel. Globally, jet fuel averages $157.41 per barrel, almost double the industry’s 2026 projections, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This directly translates into much higher costs for travelers. Napoli, who has observed price hikes while contemplating a family trip to Texas from Spain this summer, stated, “We see the concern of fuel increases.” He predicted, “Ticket prices will increase astronomically.” Passengers who secured competitive fares months ago with Gulf carriers now face the prospect of rebooking with European or American airlines at two or three times the original price, assuming availability.​

The TSA Crisis Unfolds

While international conflicts persist, a domestic crisis is developing at U.S. security checkpoints. The partial government shutdown, now in its 31st day, has compelled 50,000 TSA officers to work unpaid since February 14. Absenteeism at key airports such as Atlanta, Houston, and New York has climbed to approximately 20%. Officials have cautioned that smaller airports might be forced to close entirely if the political impasse in Washington continues.

“We’ve had TSA issues: really long lines just to go through security, really long lines at border control,” Napoli said. “All of that has just made travel super frustrating for Americans.”​

AirHelp data illustrates the extent of the disruption. In February 2026, major airports experienced alarming flight disruption rates: Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International reported the highest at 61.8% of flights disrupted, with Newark Liberty at 61.0% and O’Hare at 59.1% close behind. New York’s LaGuardia and Ronald Reagan National completed the bottom five, with rates of 58.7% and 58.2%, respectively. Even top-performing airports were significantly affected, with Salt Lake City International showing a 39.6% disruption rate.​

Tourism Faces Jeopardy

The current timing is highly unfavorable. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to commence in 16 North American host cities, such as Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, and New York. The LA28 Olympics will follow two years later. Both events were anticipated to generate billions in tourism revenue for the U.S. travel sector, which is still working to restore consumer confidence, especially as global perceptions of the U.S. have reached historic lows due to tariffs and policing actions. ​

“Uncertainty is always bad for consumer confidence, and it’s bad for passenger confidence,” Napoli said. “We want people to come to the U.S. for the World Cup. If there’s a fear of really long passport control difficulties, if there are fears of lots of delays and nothing people can do about it, if ticket prices become incredibly expensive, then we won’t see those numbers.”​

The repercussions extend far beyond airports. “It won’t just be bad for the event,” Napoli further explained. “It will be bad for all the businesses that have planned their budgets around it. Hotel occupancy, restaurants: a lot of businesses are really depending on a successful World Cup.”​

For now, Napoli believes it’s premature to fully assess the impact of what he terms an “incredibly uncomfortable” period for the airline sector. He points out that claims are typically filed months after disruptions, not immediately. Nevertheless, he offered his personal take on the severity of the situation. “These things always happen when I’m about to travel,” he remarked with a chuckle, confirming he is still proceeding with his family vacation plans.