Trump Detains Maduro, But Maduro’s Regime Remains in Power for Now

Hours after President Donald Trump announced the U.S. intention to “run” Venezuela, the South American nation was left in a state of uncertainty regarding the implications and leadership.

By the time ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was reportedly an indicted prisoner en route to New York, his Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, whom Trump had designated to partner with Washington to “make Venezuela great again,” condemned the intervention as “barbaric” and a “kidnapping.”

Adding to the confusion, the White House provided scant details on how it would manage an oil-producing country of approximately 30 million people. A U.S. official indicated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time critic of Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez, would assume the primary administrative role.

Currently, there is no outlined plan for American troops or administrators to be deployed in Venezuela. However, Trump signaled a strong focus on the country’s petroleum sector, stating the U.S. would have a “presence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil.” This could lead to an expanded role for Corp., which continues to operate in Venezuela under sanctions waivers, as well as for other major American oil companies.

Trump’s reluctance to deploy American troops and his assessment of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as a “nice woman” not yet ready to govern suggest a decision to give Rodríguez and other Maduro loyalists another chance rather than pursuing a complete regime change. By Saturday evening, Maduro was in U.S. custody in Manhattan, according to an anonymous individual familiar with the situation.

Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, commented that Trump is “essentially trying to control the vice president and people around her through carrots and sticks to get the outcomes the United States wants,” adding, “We’ll see if it works.”

Trump appeared to corroborate this strategy in later remarks to the New York Post, stating that U.S. troops on the ground would not be necessary as long as Rodríguez “does what we want.”

This strategy represents a significant gamble, particularly for a president who campaigned in 2016 on ending America’s “forever wars” but has since utilized the U.S. military in strikes in Iran, Yemen, Nigeria, and the Caribbean.

Venezuela has endured decades of mismanagement, leading to the deterioration of its oil infrastructure, persistent hyperinflation, and the exodus of millions of economic and political migrants to neighboring countries and the U.S. A complete governmental collapse triggered by the early morning U.S. action risks exacerbating existing turmoil.

Rodríguez, widely considered the most influential figure in Venezuela after Maduro, issued mixed statements on Saturday. While calling for the ousted president’s return, she also indicated that Venezuela could maintain “respectful relationships,” potentially opening a path to détente with the U.S. if she consolidates power and cooperation is established.

Trump warned of potential further American attacks if such cooperation is not forthcoming.

He stated, “All political and military figures in Venezuela should understand what happened to Maduro can happen to them, and it will happen to them” if they are not “fair” to the Venezuelan people.

‘Run Properly’

In the immediate term, and assuming governance does not break down, the administration’s action could provide an opportunity to help revitalize Venezuela’s struggling oil industry, a focus Trump emphasized when announcing Maduro’s capture.

“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” Trump stated. He also added, “We’re going to make sure that that country is run properly.”

A multiyear recovery of Venezuelan oil production could lead to a 4% decrease in global oil prices over time, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics. This could help the U.S. president address voter concerns about affordability, though energy analysts cautioned that it could take years for Venezuela’s oil industry, hampered by mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions, to recover.

Bloomberg Economics analyst Jimena Zuniga wrote, “Both upside and downside scenarios have significant implications for Venezuela’s outlook, debt markets, global oil supply, and the US standing in the region and the world.”

Following Trump’s news conference, a U.S. official outlined immediate priorities, stating that administration officials would engage diplomatically with remaining Venezuelan government figures and oil executives to boost output. The official confirmed that the U.S. military would remain on alert and the oil embargo would stay in effect, with strikes on suspected drug vessels continuing.

However, uncertainty about the path forward persisted in Caracas as it entered its first night without Maduro in over a decade, with many of his regime’s staunch supporters still present in the country.

Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, expressed skepticism about the long-term success of this approach, citing “that reality, and Delcy Rodríguez’s long history with Maduro.”

Throughout the day, Venezuelans queued at grocery stores and gas stations, expressing concerns about the nation’s future.

Matt Terrill, managing partner at Firehouse Strategies, remarked, “A bigger concern really would be that this all falls apart here, that there isn’t an effort to make sure there’s a successful handoff.”

Iraq, Afghanistan

While Trump projected optimism, the military action evoked comparisons to past U.S. regime change efforts that yielded mixed results.

Under President George W. Bush, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 to depose Saddam Hussein. Both conflicts and subsequent insurgencies led to prolonged and costly U.S. occupations. Frustration over these deployments and the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan contributed to Trump’s presidential victories.

This situation now presents a legacy risk for him, and potentially for Rubio, who is considered a possible presidential candidate in 2028.

CSIS’s Berg wrote on Saturday, “This is, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. Venezuela will enter a long transition with even greater U.S. involvement in shaping the government to come.”