Trump advocates for $100 billion in oil investments in Venezuela while Exxon and others claim it’s currently ‘uninvestable’ without significant reforms

During a meeting with top oil executives at the White House on January 9, President Donald Trump stated that American oil companies, along with some European ones, will invest at least $100 billion in Venezuela to and generate significant wealth.

However, the CEOs of , , and others quickly dampened this message. They said that it will take a substantial amount of time to implement the necessary legal reforms and security measures in the country before they can make any long – term commitments to reenter Venezuela in the coming decades.

“Currently, it’s not a viable investment,” Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods of Venezuela. “There need to be significant changes to the commercial frameworks and the legal system. There must be long – lasting investment protections.”

Woods mentioned that Exxon could have a technical team on the ground in Venezuela in less than two weeks to start assessing the situation. But he was non – committal beyond that. He expressed confidence that the Trump administration and the acting Venezuelan leadership can work out the necessary reforms.

“We’ve had our assets seized there twice,” Wood said, pointing out that Exxon’s Venezuelan assets were most recently expropriated in 2007. “So, you can imagine that reentering for a third time would require some quite significant changes compared to what we’ve seen historically and the current situation.”

Trump has used the 2007 expropriation in Venezuela, specifically from Conoco and Exxon, as a pretext for the shocking January 3 military attack and the arrest of leader Nicolás Maduro, as well as for claims of drug and human trafficking. Trump has repeatedly referred to the expropriations as the largest theft in American history.

“We’re going to start discussing the details of a deal,” Trump said at the end of the public meeting before starting a private session. “We have to get [oil companies] to invest, and we have to get their money back as quickly as possible. Then we can divide it all among Venezuela, the United States, and them. I think the formula is simple … It’s going to be a huge success.”

Big oil urges caution

Trump told Woods and others that he wants “speed and quality.”

Mark Nelson, the vice – chairman of , the only American producer currently operating in Venezuela under a special license, said that it could increase its oil flows by 50% in less than two years as part of a “phase one.” But that would mean raising the country’s overall daily oil volumes from almost 1 million barrels to more than 1.1 million barrels for a country that has the world’s largest proven oil reserves and whose output peaked decades ago at nearly 4 million barrels.

Energy analysts view Chevron—now operating in partnership with Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA—as the biggest winner in Venezuela because of its existing presence and infrastructure, while others remain hesitant to invest. “We are definitely committed to [Venezuela’s] present,” Nelson said, “and as a proud American company, we very much look forward to helping it build a better future.”

According to research firm Rystad Energy, more than doubling Venezuela’s current oil production is likely to take until 2030 and cost about $110 billion. Tripling the production back to the levels of 2000 would take well over a decade and cost closer to $185 billion.

Similar to Exxon, ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance showed interest but argued that major reforms are required first. Conoco is the largest creditor from Venezuela’s natural resources expropriations nearly 20 years ago.

“As we think big and boldly, we also need to consider restructuring the entire Venezuelan energy system, including PDVSA,” Lance said. “If we can do that and think boldly, there’s an opportunity.”

Trump told Lance that companies will start with a “clean slate” and will not be reimbursed for past write – offs, which Lance said were worth about $12 billion for Conoco.

When asked about “backstops,” Trump eventually acknowledged the risk the oil companies would take. “They know the risks. There are risks. We’re going to assist them. We’re going to make it easy, and they’re going to be there for a long time.”

Interest across the value chain

The leaders of European oil producers, Italy’s and Spain’s , which have a joint venture in Venezuela, both informed Trump that they want to invest more and increase production. And some private U.S. oil producers, such as Hilcorp and Armstrong Oil & Gas, said they are interested in producing oil in Venezuela.

CEO Wael Sawan also said that the Big Oil giant may invest a “few billion dollars” in Venezuela.

Top drillers and oilfield services firms and SLB, the latter of which currently works with Chevron there, also said they aim to do more.

However, most of what the executives said was “cheerleading” for Trump, while Exxon provided the crucial reality check, said Dan Pickering, founder of the Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm.

“The interest is high; the willingness is unclear,” Pickering said about companies investing billions of dollars in an unstable Venezuela.

He predicts that Venezuela could realistically increase its production by 50% within three years, but that would still be far below its historic volumes. And most of the U.S. oil companies on the outside only see new Venezuelan oil as competition that would lower oil prices and profits, Pickering said. “There is no good news for [U.S.] shale in a reopening of Venezuela. They’re not going to be happy.”

For Trump, that means lower prices at the pump, which he values.

Trump reiterated that the U.S. is in the process of taking at least 30 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil over time to the U.S. Gulf Coast to sell to U.S. refiners and others as part of a deal with Venezuela. The proceeds would be controlled by the White House in external bank accounts and mostly returned to Venezuela pending government cooperation.

Several of the largest Gulf Coast refineries are designed to process the extra – heavy grades of crude oil produced from Venezuela. The leaders of top U.S. refiners and told Trump they can take many more Venezuelan barrels.