SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Poised for Historic Venture-Backed IPOs

(SeaPRwire) –   We’re entering an era of mega-IPOs, and for the venture capital industry, these events might bring just as many challenges as they do solutions.

With rumors circulating that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could go public in 2026, this trio would likely become the three largest venture-backed IPOs of all time. In a note published this week, PitchBook estimated that this “could conceivably generate more value than all VC-backed IPOs combined since 2000.”

Let’s look at the numbers: U.S. venture-backed IPOs raised $62.1 billion in 2021, a record year. Now consider SpaceX alone. Founded in 2002 as an ambitious project by Elon Musk, the company is reportedly aiming to raise $50 billion on its own. SpaceX’s valuation is said to be $1.5 trillion, and PitchBook calculates that investors who backed the company in its 2023 funding round (when it was valued at $137 billion) are in line for an impressive 10x return. (This group includes nearly 50 investors, such as Andreessen Horowitz.)

Then there are OpenAI and Anthropic. If one or both of these firms go public, it would deliver a wave of much-needed returns to the U.S. venture capital sector, which has been starved for liquidity for half a decade.

However, there are some caveats: First, these potential massive liquidity events will be relatively concentrated, reflecting the imbalanced AI market. SpaceX is so large that many investors will win—but even so, the number of beneficiaries is limited. And the rumored pipeline beyond these top names isn’t exactly robust right now, though Strava, Cerebras, Kraken, Motive, and Discord are all in the reported IPO mix.

Large investors are set to be the biggest winners here. Stanford points out that Nvidia, Microsoft, Altimeter, Coatue, and Fidelity all have stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI; Andreessen is an investor in SpaceX, xAI, and OpenAI; and T. Rowe Price has invested in all three. This could “further push the concentration that has been building in VC for a couple of years. These investors haven’t had trouble raising new funds, and if they can send back billions in cash to LPs, that money will be recycled into their next fundraisers.”

What’s more, this year isn’t shaping up to be the stable recovery many in the private markets have dreamed of. Geopolitical uncertainty has only increased with the war in Iran, and very few IPOs from the past year have performed well. (Figma, for example, had a strong debut but its shares have since dropped about 80%.)

And, of course, if none of the Big Three takes the IPO leap, that’s a signal in itself.

“A market where these companies stay private probably indicates the IPO market is closed for tech firms,” said Stanford. “With the war in Iran pushing up energy prices and causing a shift away from risky tech companies, we’re likely looking at another year of low tech IPO activity and significant revaluations of those firms.”

See you Monday,

Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@.com

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