South Korea Warns North Korea May Time Nuclear Test Near U.S. Election

South Korea’s defense minister has stated that North Korea might be contemplating a nuclear test around the time of the U.S. presidential election to enhance its visibility. This comes as Kim Jong Un introduces new warheads capable of striking the U.S. and its allies in Asia.

Shin Wonsik, the defense minister, announced during a Tokyo interview on Sunday that Seoul will finalize an agreement with Japan and the U.S. to standardize the tracking of missiles launched from North Korea. He was in the Japanese capital to sign a deal with the U.S. and Japan, solidifying advancements in security cooperation that have included joint military exercises.

“North Korea has finalized preparations to conduct a nuclear test when a decision is made,” Shin remarked. “We cannot rule out the possibility of that decisive moment being right before or after the U.S. presidential election to increase its leverage against the U.S.”

Pyongyang has a pattern of aligning its provocations with major political events. While Kim engaged in three in-person summits with Donald Trump during his presidency, North Korean state media refuted comments made by Trump regarding his relationship with Kim. The regime has also expressed harsh criticisms toward the Biden administration and ignored its requests to resume long-stalled denuclearization discussions.

North Korea’s most recent nuclear device test took place in September 2017, deploying its most potent atomic bomb with an estimated yield of between 120-250 kilotons. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, based in Seoul, has estimated that North Korea possesses approximately 80 to 90 warheads, as stated in a report released in January 2023. The institute added that Kim aims to amass between 100 to 300 warheads over the long term.

Last year, North Korea unveiled photographs of Kim inspecting the nation’s largest display of warheads since he assumed power about a decade ago, indicating Pyongyang’s progress in miniaturizing these weapons. This could lead to testing to validate the capabilities of its newest bomb designed for use across various delivery systems, as suggested in a 2023 report from the Open Nuclear Network.

The U.S., Japan, and South Korea commenced real-time data sharing in December regarding missile launches and have developed standard operating procedures for information sharing, Shin explained.

“The three countries have nearly reached an agreement on the SOP,” he stated, adding that he anticipates the signing of a formal agreement soon.

North Korea might also be emboldened to attempt a nuclear test due to cooperation with Russia, which the U.S. and South Korea allege includes arms transfers to support President Vladimir Putin in his assault on Ukraine. When the Russian president made his recent visit, Kim pledged unconditional support for Putin’s military efforts in Ukraine.

The two nations also signed a , rekindling cooperation rooted in the Cold War, now fortified by the nuclear arsenals of both. Putin has signaled Russia’s readiness to employ its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to block any new sanctions against Kim for weapons tests in defiance of resolutions from the global body.

The world faces substantial risks. A full-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula could result in millions of casualties and inflict a $4 trillion economic loss globally in the first year, representing 3.9% of GDP. This would be more than double the damage caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

Shin disclosed that North Korea has dispatched 12,000 shipping containers to Russia, capable of holding up to 5.6 million artillery shells. The regime has also provided a significant number of ballistic missiles to aid Putin in his war, Shin stated.

“We believe that Russia is offering technical support not only for rockets but also for the modernization of conventional weapons that North Korea seeks,” Shin said. “Over time, we will need to monitor how these technologies are transferred to North Korea and what impact they have on its weapons systems.”

Shin’s visit to Japan marks the first by a South Korean defense minister in 15 years. Cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul has intensified following the inauguration of conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol about two years ago, who has worked to mend ties strained by historical issues. 

This led to the Biden administration enhancing trilateral cooperation, bringing the Asian nations closer on security matters. The U.S. has stationed tens of thousands of its military personnel in both countries.

Shin praised the improved relations and emphasized their benefits for both nations. 

“Japan is safer when South Korea provides a shield at the frontline,” he remarked, referring to the threats posed by North Korea. “For South Korea’s safety too, we are stronger when we have an assuring backing at the rear, from Japan.”