Scott Galloway foresees OpenAI possibly pulling IPO amid AI ‘vibe shift’ with investors repelled by Trump proximity, questionable revenue
In spite of industry projections of a blockbuster rebound in initial public offerings in the upcoming year, NYU Stern marketing professor and tech analyst Scott Galloway has delivered a contrary warning regarding the crown jewel of the AI boom. During a recent episode of ,, Galloway suggested that OpenAI’s anticipated public listing, as reported by , is by no means a certainty, citing eroding competitive advantages and a harmful shift in brand perception.
When discussing the potential for a record-breaking IPO market—featuring rumored listings for and OpenAI—Galloway put forward a stark prediction about the ChatGPT creator. “I believe OpenAI could pull out,” Galloway declared, assigning a “nonzero probability” to the company completely withdrawing its IPO plans. His skepticism stands in stark contrast to reports that OpenAI is seeking additional funding at valuations as high as $830 billion.
According to Galloway, the main threat to OpenAI’s public debut is a rapidly narrowing gap in the competitive landscape. He contends that OpenAI’s “sustainable advantage is extremely thin,” especially when compared to deep-tech giants like SpaceX, which controls 80% to 90% of global launch capabilities. Galloway pointed out the surge in competitors, specifically noting that Google’s Gemini and various open-weight models are gaining considerable momentum. Moreover, he observed that rival Anthropic is outperforming OpenAI in the enterprise sector by successfully positioning itself as a safe, human-centric “partner” rather than an existential threat.
Beyond technology, Galloway and cohost Ed Elson argued that OpenAI is experiencing a massive “vibe shift.” He maintained that while associations with OpenAI were a “vibe to the upside” in 2025, sentiment has flipped to a “vibe to the downside.”
Galloway concurred, criticizing the company’s recent brand management, specifically citing the “proximity between Sam Altman and the president” as a liability that is making investors and the public “gag.” This skepticism seems to be seeping into the broader market’s perception of OpenAI’s primary backer, .
Elson noted that Microsoft investors have started to “call bullshit” on the tech giant’s growth stories, expressing doubt that the projected revenue from their substantial AI capital expenditures—specifically those related to OpenAI—will actually come to fruition. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious of companies that have “gotten out in front of their skis” in terms of valuations without demonstrating clear returns on investment.
The podcast discussion also highlighted the perils retail investors face if the IPO does go ahead. Galloway described the current IPO environment as a “rigged game” where institutions and insiders obtain discounted access while retail investors are left to buy at inflated prices driven by “pent-up demand.” He predicted that if OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX do go public, the opening prices will be “completely irrational.”
Acadian Asset Management’s stated that he doesn’t view conditions in the stock market as bubbly for AI, but only because a massive IPO wave hasn’t occurred. confirmed to the Financial Times that it is planning one of the largest IPO pipelines in its history, while Goldman Sachs co-head of investment banking Kim Posnett told in that the market is entering an IPO “megacycle” characterized by “unprecedented deal volume and IPO sizes.”
For this story, journalists utilized generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information prior to publication.