Ryanair CEO urges booking summer trips before fares increase, forecasting French air traffic controllers to be more likely to cause flight disruptions than fuel shortages

(SeaPRwire) –   Ryanair’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, has cautioned that a prolonged U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran through the summer could lead to jet fuel shortages, forcing airlines to reduce their flight schedules.

Speaking with ITV News on Thursday, O’Leary noted that carriers would face an unprecedented situation if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for another two to three months, potentially resulting in the cancellation of 5% to 10% of flights during May, June, and July.

He further explained that airlines would have little foresight regarding which specific flights to scrap, as those decisions would be dictated by the fuel reserves available at individual airports.

“We will attempt to ground a limited number of aircraft to reduce the impact on our passengers,” O’Leary stated, though he admitted the process would be both difficult and challenging.

Even with the threat of cancellations, the CEO strongly suggested that travelers secure their summer bookings immediately to avoid upcoming fare hikes.

The conflict has caused jet fuel costs to climb faster than gasoline prices, as the war has obstructed both global oil supplies and significant refining operations.

Major American hubs, including New York, Los Angeles, Houston, and Chicago, have seen jet fuel prices surge to $4.88 per gallon, which is nearly twice the rate seen before the conflict began.

In response, several airlines are increasing baggage fees, while United Airlines is preparing for the possibility of oil reaching $175 per barrel by developing plans to scale back capacity.

When questioned if booking now is too risky given the potential for cancellations, O’Leary dismissed the concern.

Describing life itself as a gamble, he estimated that while 5% to 10% of flights might be canceled in mid-summer, the vast majority—90% to 95%—will still fly. He argued that the greater risk is waiting to book and being forced to pay significantly higher fares.

O’Leary noted that passengers might not receive refunds for these specific cancellations, as airlines could categorize the situation as being outside their control.

However, he emphasized that those traveling within Europe would not be left stranded, as regulations require airlines to provide rerouting or return trips.

“Ryanair operates many daily flights, and we will ensure you are re-accommodated or returned home,” O’Leary promised. He suggested that while a day or two of delay is possible, travelers should be confident in their plans, noting that French air traffic control strikes are likely to cause more disruption than fuel issues.