Prioritizing People in the Planning of Expanding Global Cities
Over half the global population is urban, a number projected to increase by 2.4 billion by 2050. Cities are central to humanity’s future, yet face significant challenges: climate change, inequality, and economic instability. To accommodate population growth and meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while combating climate change, cities must adopt transformative, sustainable development strategies.
Rapid urban expansion is a crisis. Unplanned growth, driven by housing needs and the expansion of informal settlements (housing over 1.1 billion), exacerbates climate risks. Buildings and construction account for up to 40% of greenhouse gas emissions.
As U.N.-Habitat reports, over 2 billion urban dwellers will experience substantial temperature increases by 2040, with over a third residing in areas exceeding 29°C annually. Urban green spaces, crucial for mitigating heat, have decreased from 19.5% of urban land in 1990 to 13.9% in 2020. Climate disasters (floods, cyclones, droughts) have risen, accounting for 91% of major disasters between 1998 and 2017, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations in informal settlements.
This is not solely an environmental concern. Cities also grapple with widening social and economic disparities. Annual economic losses from increased natural disasters could exceed $1 trillion by mid-century, according to World Cities Report projections.
The global housing crisis affects over 2.8 billion people. Investment in social housing has fallen, with most regions allocating less than 0.5% of GDP. Internal displacement, due to conflict and disasters, further strains housing needs. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Center reports a tripling of internally displaced people in Africa (to 35 million) over 15 years, with 60% seeking refuge in already overburdened urban areas.
However, cities offer solutions. Rethinking urban policies, land use, legislation, and financing, prioritizing housing and essential services, is crucial for climate action and sustainable development. The connection between affordable housing, equitable urban planning, and sustainable development must be clearly established.
First, optimize land use for ecological, economic, and social benefits. This reduces emissions, improves accessibility, and unlocks urban potential. Boosting local economic development by transforming informal settlements and integrating them into the urban fabric is essential, particularly considering the informal economy’s significance in the Global South. For instance, the International Labour Organization reports 98.5% informal employment in Niger and 97.5% in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2021. Informality also dominates land rights and property issues; a small fraction of Angolan urban households are registered to pay property taxes, resulting in property tax income contributing only 0.26% to the 2023 state budget (World Bank data, Centre for Affordable Housing Finance in Africa 2024 Yearbook).
Second, prioritize housing and sustainable construction materials, developing local markets. Housing and construction create jobs, stimulate the economy, and promote sustainable housing. Using materials like recycled steel, bamboo, and energy-efficient insulation reduces the environmental impact.
Third, integrate essential services (clean energy, water, sanitation, transportation) into urban planning, ensuring adequate infrastructure investment. These services are vital for resident well-being and climate change mitigation and adaptation, building resilient and sustainable cities.
Local and regional governments are key to these transformations. They bridge global goals and local action, connecting infrastructure, services, and people, forming the foundation of the SDGs. This involves working with vulnerable communities in informal settlements and developing strategies that optimize the built environment, aligning with consumer preferences and demographics.
Housing is fundamental to achieving the SDGs. Rapid urban growth in Africa and Asia requires adequate shelter. Investments in housing and infrastructure create economies of scale, expanding consumer and tax bases. The U.S. National Association of Home Builders estimates that 100 affordable homes create 161 local jobs in the first year and generate $11.7 million in local income.
The solution requires unified efforts integrating social, urban, and climate goals, grounded in local action and supported by adequate housing.
Our guiding principle: prioritize people, and they will protect the planet.