Prediction markets see surge in wagers on Bitcoin’s five-minute price movements

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A new trend is emerging on prediction markets: wagering on whether Bitcoin’s price will increase or decrease within the next five to fifteen minutes. On Polymarket, a five-minute bet concerning the price of the leading cryptocurrency has generated over $60 million in daily trading volume, as reported by Dune Analytics.

These minute-by-minute Bitcoin bets underscore the straightforward nature of prediction market wagers. Unlike traditional sports betting, which involves intricate metrics such as spreads, moneylines, and total points, prediction markets offer a more accessible user experience. Participants can easily see the proportion of their peers who are voting “yes” or “no” on a particular bet.

On Monday at 1 PM ET, approximately 73% of Polymarket users predicted that Bitcoin’s price would rise in the subsequent five minutes. Once this five-minute period concluded at 1:05 PM ET, the platform immediately presented a new wager for the following five minutes of Bitcoin’s price movement, and so on. Polymarket’s competitor, Kalshi, is currently offering bets on whether Bitcoin will increase or decrease every fifteen minutes. Around 37% of users anticipated a price increase between 1:00 PM ET and 1:15 PM ET, though this percentage is subject to continuous change as more individuals enter the betting pool or close their existing positions.

These rapid-fire bets highlight the extensive range of subjects available for betting on prediction market platforms. For instance, individuals can wager on whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of aliens before 2027, a market that has already seen approximately $12 million in transaction volume, or on the return of Jesus Christ this year, which has accumulated $45 million in transaction volume.

Sports betting remains the most popular category on prediction markets, accounting for roughly 90% of bets on Kalshi. However, betting on cultural events has seen a significant rise in popularity. According to Forbes, over $120 million was wagered on bets related to the recent Oscars ceremony across Polymarket and Kalshi.

Prediction markets gained mainstream attention during the 2024 presidential election, where they accurately forecasted Donald Trump’s victory, contradicting many national polls. The two primary platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are reportedly seeking to raise funds at a valuation of $20 billion, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.